Matt Nagy understands the frustration of Chicago Bears fans. He's a student of history. The man is aware of how starved this city has become for a good quarterback. So watching Mitch Trubisky continue to go through a remarkable roller-coaster of play has become exhausting. When will he start to string good games together? Will he ever do that? Nagy has faith those days will come. It's a matter of staying the course and working through the problems.
He does have one theory though. An idea for why the 25-year old struggled last week against Green Bay and often had similar problems in 2018. He pointed out how in several of the best games Trubisky had last year that they tended to have the same thing in common. The offense got off to a fast start. Nagy believes a key goal for this team is to find ways to get Trubisky off to better starts. Something they haven't always been good at.
I wrote recently about how it was unusual that running the ball or pass pressure weren't strong indicators for Trubisky's highs and lows. Instead it was about completions. The young man is a rhythmic quarterback. Stringing positive plays together settles him down and lends to better execution. Is Nagy correct on saying the vital part is doing it early in games?
Matt Nagy wants faster starts for Trubisky
Nagy seems to think Trubisky is heavily influenced by fast starts. The better things go early, the better he plays. This leads one to ask. Is it true or is it something Nagy hopes is the case. To figure it out, I went back and looked at the four best games Trubisky had in 2018 in terms of passer rating. I scanned how things went early to see if they were influenced by a fast start or not. The results were fairly conclusive.
- vs. Tampa Bay - started 8-of-11
- vs. Detroit - started 12-of-13
- at Miami - started 9-of-15
- vs. Green Bay - started 10-of-14
Now here are his worst performances and how he managed to start out.
- vs. Los Angeles - started 7-of-15
- vs. Minnesota - started 12-of-14*
- vs. New England - started 3-of-13
- at Arizona - started 12-of-15*
While the stat isn't perfect in terms of explaining everything, it does back up what Nagy is saying. Trubisky tends to play his best when he's able to find a rhythm early. He probably would've had better games against Minnesota and Arizona. Unfortunately, his strong completion ratios were interspersed with bad turnovers including an interception by the Vikings and fumble against the Cardinals.
So does the Green Bay game reinforce Nagy's point? It certainly does. Trubisky started things out going 8-of-15 passing, barely above 50%. The first drive told the entire story: two incompletions and a sack. That drive set the tone for the entire game and Trubisky was never able to find a rhythm. This was a similar theme to those other games where he struggled. This is the persistent hump that Nagy and the coaches are trying to get over.
