Matt Nagy Won't Survive Another Down Offensive Year

When George McCaskey made his decision to keep Matt Nagy as head coach of the Chicago Bears, his primary reasoning was straightforward enough. Two playoff trips and no losing records in three years. While true, those statements made it easy to overlook how the Bears chairman made no mention of the head coach's offensive aptitude. That is because there hasn't been any evidence to justify it. People can try to talk their way around it all day. Facts are facts. In three seasons, Nagy's offense has ranked 21st, 29th, and 26th. Among the worst in the NFL. Considering he was supposed to be some sort of offensive guru? That is not a good look. So what was his explanation for this? He broke it down during his latest press conference, detailing why things haven't clicked yet and why he's confident they will in 2021.

“I remember when I first talked to you all [the media] when I first got here and I explained to everybody here that this offense, it takes a few years to get going. We saw that in Kansas City because it took a few years, not just with the players that were coming in and were drafted, but the scheme — them learning it and understanding it. “After three or four years, it really started picking up and going. I feel like we’re at that spot right now. We’ve got some guys that have been on this team for two, three, four years and they know the offense as well as I do — where that wasn’t the case two or three years ago."

Is that fair?

Not really. Andy Reid took an offense that was 32nd in points scored the year prior to his arrival and improved it to 6th. It is true that they didn't finish well in total offense those first few years, but they at least managed to still score points. Doug Pederson took over the Philadelphia Eagles in 2016 and their offense finished 22nd. The next year they were 7th and won the Super Bowl. The truth is Nagy's explanation holds little weight. The actual argument that he is hoping proves true is the Bears just didn't have good enough quarterbacks to execute his system. Mitch Trubisky never seemed to grasp it properly. Nick Foles understood it but couldn't survive behind a struggling offensive line. The hope is that Andy Dalton and Justin Fields will change this. They had better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uxb35lCw86w&t=2s&ab_channel=ChicagoBears

Matt Nagy may not have his safety net anymore

That being the Bears' defense. For three years it has stood among some of the best in the NFL. They've made it a lot easier to win some of the tougher games on their schedules. At least enough to avoid a losing record in 2019 and 2020. This season? It feels unlikely they will not be able to shoulder that burden. Not after losing their best cornerback in Kyle Fuller and also having to face a slate of quarterbacks this year that includes three former league MVPs and five former Pro Bowlers. If they want to win this season, they'll have to score points. That responsibility falls at the feet of Matt Nagy. It is his system. He took back play calling duties from Bill Lazor. All of the pressure is on the Bears head coach to deliver. If he fails and this team once again stumbles to a finish in the mid-20s or worse? There will be no justification for keeping him around at that point.

Especially if the Bears also have a losing record.

So far this preseason, it hasn't looked encouraging. The offense still exhibits many of the problems they had under Nagy before. Ill-timed penalties, poor execution, an inability to finish drives, and constantly slow starts. Maybe that changes when the season starts. Considering six of the first 10 games will be against teams that boasted top 10 defenses last year? It is hard to see that happening.