Metrics Hand Chicago Bears High Win Probability For Redskins Game

The Chicago Bears can't afford to take any opponent for granted at this stage of the season. They're 1-1 and already in an early hole regarding the division, having lost to Green Bay in the opener. They must secure as many victories as possible in order to build momentum for what will be a tough schedule coming out of the bye week. That makes their looming matchup with the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football crucial.

On paper, it looks like a favorable matchup. The Bears have by far the better defense and a more stable running game. Washington's only advantage is at quarterback where Case Keenum is off to a strong start with five touchdowns and no interceptions through the first two games. That said, the Redskins are 1-13 in their last 14 home games on Monday night. It's never been their strongest moment to shine.

Then again the Bears have been an accommodating opponent for the past several years. Chicago is zero for their last seven against Washington dating back to 2003 when their last victory came courtesy of a rookie Rex Grossman. So this team has no right to assume victory will be theirs. With that in mind, what does the math say about their chances? Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL.com, ran the numbers.

They came out favorable.

Chicago Bears have no reason to fear the Redskins

It truly feels like the only way the Bears lose this game is if they get caught looking ahead. Minnesota is on deck the next week and it can be easy to think about more important games like that. Chicago though is no stranger to trap games. They fell into them a couple of times in 2018. Add the struggles on offense as a grounding point, the odds of them coming out flat in this game are remote. It's a matter of whether they can put together a full 60 minutes of good football.

Odds are the defense will show up and do their part in limiting the Redskins offensively. It comes down to whether Mitch Trubisky can get out of the prolonged slump he's been in. Finally throwing his first touchdown pass of the season would be a great place to start. The team remains confident that he'll come around and playing the Redskins' 25th ranked pass defense could be just what the doctor ordered.