The debate surrounding Caleb Williams is akin to a mudslinging match. There are two sides, but it's so dirty and sloppy that it's hard to tell who is who. On the one hand, Williams has one of the worst completion percentages of any starting quarterback this season, sitting barely above 58%. He still holds the ball for a long time and hasn't refined his fundamentals enough. On the other hand, he's got an almost 4-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He's 9-3 as a starter, is much better at avoiding sacks, and has taken a big step as a leader.
That is why many are reluctant to call him a good quarterback at this point. He's made his fair share of big plays, but not enough to justify putting him among the NFL's upper tier. Williams is the weak link of this offense. Except that isn't the truth at all, at least not according to Adam Hoge of CHGO. He's been charting the Bears quarterback this season and has come away with some notable findings. While accuracy remains an issue, Williams' decision-making has improved drastically over the course of this season.
I think the most important part of this conversation, though, is where the improvement needs to happen. Because the tape shows that Williams is playing “quarterback” well. By that, I mean he is running Ben Johnson’s system well. He is seeing the field, making good decisions and throwing with anticipation. Over the last three games, his decision-making has improved each week. In fact, I didn’t have him down for a single bad decision in last week’s win against the Eagles — just one that was debatable at best.
Caleb Williams is seeing the field.
That may sound like a simple statement, but it carries immense meaning. One of the hardest things for a quarterback at the NFL level is seeing the field well. They can identify coverages quickly and let the ball rip to spots where the receivers should be. They can also diagnose what defenses are trying to mask and adjust plays at the line of scrimmage. Head coach Ben Johnson even admitted he made a bad play call against Philadelphia last Friday and Caleb Williams fixed it before the snap. That would not have happened a year ago.
History says that once the game slows down for a young quarterback, everything else should fall into place. His throws will become more decisive and accurate. They'll start thinking less and reacting more. Williams is getting closer and closer to that tipping point each week. His mastery of Johnson's system is growing. The team is winning. That is likely why he hasn't felt the need to press. He's letting things happen naturally. If this decision-making remains on its current trajectory, a breakthrough feels imminent.
