Evaluating quarterbacks in the NFL draft is hard. No team knows this better than the Chicago Bears. As they sit and pray that Mitch Trubisky is not yet another 1st round disappointment for them, many are lamenting what the team keeps doing wrong in regards to the process. Is there any metric that offers a consistent idea of whether a QB will have success in the pros? For some time I didn't think so. That is until a random encounter with a Miami Dolphins fan piqued my interest.
Joe W of the @Joe_W_Dolphins Twitter tag posted a fascinating theory while talking about the Dolphins' likely pursuit of a quarterback in 2020. Odds are they will have the #1 overall pick in the draft so this makes sense. His thinking was based on where to start evaluations. One statistical category he has the greatest interest in is passing touchdowns. The idea being that if a QB can't produce a lot of TDs in college, he'll never do so in the pros.
Out of simple interest, I began digging into this to see if it had any validity at all. However, in order to try and add further clarity, I tweaked the metric a bit. Instead of pure touchdown passes in a season, I switched it to touchdown passes coupled with how many passes thrown total by the quarterback. This helped provide an idea of how truly efficient the quarterbacks were.
The results were eye-opening.
Here is the metric used on the 1st round picks from the 2017 quarterback class during their final college seasons.
- Deshaun Watson - 41 TDs on 388 passes (10.5%)
- Patrick Mahomes - 41 TDs on 597 passes (6.8%)
- Mitch Trubisky - 30 TDs on 447 passes (6.7%)
If one were to poll NFL experts today, they would agree that Trubisky ranks third behind Watson and Mahomes. So the metric does have some merit. Some will argue that Mahomes is superior in the NFL so it's not that accurate. They should note that Watson has been sacked 91 times in 25 games. Mahomes has been sacked 30 times in 19. Surrounding cast matters.
Thus I kept digging.
Chicago Bears QB woes can be tied to this metric
What really intrigued me is whether this held up against previous Bears draft attempts at the position. I went back to each time they took a 1st round quarterback during the Super Bowl era to see if there were indeed warning signs about what they were doing. Suffice to say the data was fairly consistent.
2003 QB class
- Carson Palmer - 33 TDs on 489 passes (6.7%)
- Byron Leftwich - 30 TDs on 491 passes (6.1%)
- Rex Grossman - 22 TDs on 503 passes (4.3%)*
1999 QB class
- Akili Smith - 32 TDs on 351 passes (9.1%)
- Donovan McNabb - 22 TDs on 251 passes (8.7%)
- Cade McNown - 25 TDs on 357 passes (7.0%)*
- Daunte Culpepper - 28 TDs on 402 passes (6.9%)
- Tim Couch - 36 TDs on 553 passes (6.5%)
1987 QB class
- Vinny Testaverde - 26 TDs on 276 passes (9.4%)
- Jim Harbaugh - 10 TDs on 277 passes (3.6%)*
- Chris Miller - 12 TDs on 356 passes (3.1%)
- Kelly Stouffer - 7 TDs on 374 passes (1.8%)
1982 QB class
- Jim McMahon - 30 TDs on 423 passes (7.0%)*
- Art Schlichter - 17 TDs on 350 passes (4.8%)
Paints a clear picture doesn't it? The one time the Bears managed to get the best TD producer in a draft class was 1982. Sure enough, Jim McMahon became the most successful quarterback to date in the Super Bowl era for Chicago. Granted his numbers were never eye-popping but playing in a run-first system and injuries had a hand in that. The bottom line is he was 46-15 as a starter and key to their Super Bowl run in 1985.
What makes this sting even more? There are times this metric would've served them so well.
In 1992 they drafted Will Furrer in the 4th round. He had 15 TDs on 257 attempts his final year at Virginia Tech. Good for 5.8%. If they'd used this metric, they might've noticed a kid named Jeff Blake out of East Carolina. He threw 28 TDs to 368 passes his final year (7.6%). He went in the 6th round to the New York Jets and eventually became a Pro Bowler for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Remember Nathan Enderle?
The 5th round pick in 2011 had 22 TDs on 478 passes for Idaho his final year (4.6%). Too bad they didn't notice Tyrod Taylor who had 24 on 315 for Virginia Tech (7.6%). He went in the 6th round to Baltimore.
Like any metric, it's not perfect. There are exceptions. Ryan Leaf had a higher percentage (8.2%) than Peyton Manning (7.5%) in 1998. This is where interviews and psychological evaluations can be so critical. They can help sift through the debris to find the right guy when it's too close to call. As Indianapolis most certainly did with Manning.
The good news is Trubisky isn't dead yet. He's shown signs that he can play in the NFL. It is a matter of whether the game slows down enough for him to get it. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened yet. If the Bears realize they must move on in the near future, one hopes they take this lesson to heart.
