One Reason Caleb Williams Is Projected To Break Out Vs. Colts

Caleb Williams has had it rough through his first two games. Tennessee and Houston made it difficult for the rookie with their vast array of different pressure and coverage packages. He was sacked nine times, hit several more, and didn't get much help from his blocking in the run game, either. The Chicago Bears know they have to get things figured out against the Indianapolis Colts. At first glance, it won't be easy. The game is on the road in a dome known for being loud. It could be a repeat of what happened in Houston.

Matt Bowen of ESPN doesn't think that will be the case. In fact, he went so far as to predict Williams will throw his first career touchdown pass in this game. His reasoning is based on data collected from the Colts' defensive approach.

Through two games, Williams does not have a touchdown throw and is completing only 56.1% of his passes. However, with a matchup versus the Colts' zone-heavy defense (68.5% of coverage snaps), the Bears can set up an open void for the rookie quarterback in the high red zone area of the field. That should give the No. 1 pick a chance to throw the first TD pass of his career.

While things haven't been great, almost all of Williams' passing success thus far has come against zone defenses. Of the 22 catches made by his wide receivers this year, 16 of them were against zone. D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze particularly had a lot of success in those situations.

Caleb Williams can play surgeon if he's protected.

His performance in the first half against Houston was a sign of that. They played a lot of zone and he did a good job distributing the football. Unfortunately, once it became clear the running game was non-existent, they climbed up near the line of scrimmage and started blitzing. This is why D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert are so important. If they can finally create some positive plays on the ground, it will force Indianapolis to respect the run, compelling them to avoid man coverage too often for the risk of allowing big plays over the top.

Their secondary isn't bad, but it does have holes. If the protection holds up, those holes can be exploited. The Bears will no doubt come into this game motivated to fix the issue. If they do, Caleb Williams is finally poised for a positive step forward. He's already showing signs of diagnosing defenses pre-snap. It is the post-snap stuff that needs cleaning up. Confidence in him remains high, as does patience.