One Reason That Ryan Poles Might Be Confident Trading Down

If you follow the breadcrumbs regarding the Chicago Bears' plans for the #9 overall pick later this month, the general feel is they do one of two things. Either they take one of the top wide receivers at that spot, or they trade down. GM Ryan Poles has said he's prepared for any outcome. He doesn't fear going through this draft with only four picks, feeling the Bears already laid a good foundation with 21 over the past two years. That said, everything about his personality says he will want to move down if the right opportunity presents itself.

There is also something else to keep in mind. He may have a good reason to think he will still end up with a quality player after moving down. As things stand, most people believe four quarterbacks are going somewhere in the top eight picks. Maybe even the first four. What nobody knows is whether any more will follow them in the 1st round. Based on recent projections by ESPN, the odds are favorable that either Bo Nix of Oregon or Michael Penix of Washington stands a good chance of doing that.

Not only that, but there is a particular spot in the 1st round they may land too.

"Bo Nix, Oregon
My ranking: QB5 and No. 37 overall
Highest projected draft slot: No. 12
Lowest projected draft slot: No. 44

Michael Penix Jr., Washington
My ranking: QB6 and No. 43 overall
Highest projected draft slot: No. 12
Lowest projected draft slot: No. 44"

Ryan Poles could be in great shape if he slips right behind #12 and #13.

That is because both picks are held by teams with glaring holes at quarterback. The Denver Broncos already cut Russell Wilson this off-season. Right now, their projected starter is career backup Jarrett Stidham. There is no way Sean Payton plans to go into next season with that setup. He will take a quarterback. It is only a matter of when. Denver may try to move up for one of the top four. If they fail, taking Nix or Penix at #12 is their best remaining bet. Even better is that they can risk moving down before doing so because the Las Vegas Raiders are right there at #13. They also need a quarterback since Gardner Minshew is their only viable option at present.

If one or even both teams end up taking a quarterback, it pushes other top non-QB prospects further down the board. If Ryan Poles moves down to #14, he could still end up with a player who likely should've gone in the top 10. It would be a gamble but a calculated one. The Bears have to determine how strong the odds are that Denver or Las Vegas will take a quarterback. If they deem them high, it increases the odds of them trading down. Everything depends on which teams may wish to come up.