Over 50,000 Simulations Projected Likely Bears Record With Andy Dalton

The Chicago Bears are committed to their course now. Andy Dalton is the starting quarterback in 2021. Head coach Matt Nagy this is the right decision for the franchise. It gives the team the best chance to win right now while also giving rookie Justin Fields an opportunity to learn from the safety of the sideline. Plenty of people aren't happy with this arrangement but their protests aren't likely to sway minds. So that leads to an interesting question. Exactly how far can the Bears go with Dalton? He does have a track record of success from his days in Cincinnati. When surrounded by a decent supporting cast, he made the playoffs five times and made three Pro Bowls. However, he hasn't done any of those things since 2016. Can he recapture some of that old magic in Chicago or is this experiment doomed to fail?

The math tells an interesting story.

Neil Paine of Five Thirty Eight used a simulation model made up of several bits of data including home field, rest periods, the strength of schedule, and quarterback situation among others. Then they ran over 50,000 simulations to see how each team fared. When the dust settled, the Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Bills came away with the best projected records. Green Bay unsurprisingly stood atop the NFC North. As for the Bears? It goes about as you'd expect.

"After jettisoning Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears are embarking on a new era with veteran QB Andy Dalton keeping the seat warm for rookie Justin Fields. But while LB Khalil Mack and Chicago’s seventh-ranked EPA defense were strong enough last season to carry the team to the playoffs, our model is skeptical that the formula can work again in 2021."

Dalton is ranked as the 24th-best QB in the league. A considerable improvement from last year for this team. Yet not enough to alter the trajectory. A slight uptick at quarterback won't be enough to overcome what they seem to think will be a defensive regression as several key players like Mack, Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and Robert Quinn continue to get older. [video width="1280" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/@rodney_adams87-are-you-serious-BUFvsCHI-DaBears-1.mp4"][/video]

This is why many don't see the point of Andy Dalton

Why bother wasting games on him when they can be used instead to further the development of Fields? This is where the perception from fans differs from that of the coaching staff. Reports have stated for weeks that Nagy and others strongly believe in the 33-year old. He has the necessary intelligence, leadership, and experience to run this offense the right way. Sure he didn't play well in the preseason but that doesn't tell the full story. Let him play with a complete offensive line and all the actual starting weapons before passing judgment on him. People might be surprised by how much better things look. At least that is the hope. Most can already predict what will likely happen. Andy Dalton plays the first few weeks, struggles, the team gets off to a bad start, and Nagy ends up going to Fields. Thus the first month or so of the season will be a complete waste of time just like back in 2017 with Mike Glennon.

Dalton is a better player than Glennon though.

That much is obvious. The Bears also have way more talent offensively than they did four years ago. He won't be throwing to Kendall Wright and Josh Bellamy. If the offensive line doesn't completely crumble, he can win some football games. Nagy better hope so. Otherwise, this experiment might end up costing him his job if it goes as bad as some fear.