The Chicago Bears could easily keep the #1 overall pick and take the best player on their board. It's almost always the route most teams take. However, GM Ryan Poles is in a unique position. He doesn't need a quarterback, thanks to the presence of Justin Fields. His team is also in Year 2 of a full-blown rebuild. More picks are a good thing from his perspective. That is why trading #1 to the highest bidder makes logical sense. The tricky part is getting enough teams involved to make such a move worth it.
Poles won't move down for one or two 2nd or 3rd rounders. He'll want to stockpile assets, particularly a 1st round pick in the 2024 and maybe even 2025 drafts. Much of this hinges on what will happen with the top veteran quarterbacks set to hit the open market next month. Six names stand out as likely starters in 2023. Here are the projections for all of them based on the latest information available. How could it end up impacting the Bears' plans?
The Chicago Bears may like how things unfold.
Derek Carr: Signs with Saints
People will say the Saints failed to trade for Carr. However, one must see the other side of the coin. New Orleans' push to make a deal got them the opportunity to meet with the quarterback. They're the only team to do so. That meant they could make their pitch on why he'd be a great fit there. One cannot underestimate this advantage. While other teams will make a strong push once Carr hits the market on February 15t; the Saints should be considered the favorites.
Aaron Rodgers: Traded to the Jets
It feels like there are only two avenues forward for the future Hall of Famer. Either he retires, or he's traded. Another year in Green Bay doesn't seem feasible anymore. With so much money on the table due to his contract, he's unlikely to walk away. That means trade. All signs point to the New York Jets being the team that will pursue him most aggressively. They have a roster ready to compete for a title, are in the AFC, and have an owner in Woody Johnson reported to be a big fan of Rodgers.
Lamar Jackson: Franchise tagged by Baltimore
The Ravens and their star quarterback remain far apart on extension talks. While frustrating, it doesn't change the fact Baltimore has leverage in this situation. They can franchise tag him this year and next year if they wish. That time can be spent negotiating with Jackson until the two sides finally reach common ground. An outside chance does exist that Baltimore decides to trade their star, but the most likely outcome is he plays 2023 on the tag.
Daniel Jones: Signs extension with Giants
New York is in a conundrum. They have two players they can franchise tag in Jones and Saquon Barkley. The cheaper of the two would be Barkley, which means the Giants must prioritize locking up Jones to a long-term extension before the new league year starts if they wish to avoid losing him. The tricky part will be finding a number that satisfies both sides. Jones was much better in 2022 but not anywhere close to top-tier. The two sides must work fast to figure this o. Otherwise, the tag may come into play.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Signs with Raiders
Tom Brady retiring was a mortal blow to the Raiders' off-season plans. No doubt head coach Josh McDaniels was hoping for a reunion with the Hall of Famer. Now the alternatives seem grim. Rodgers is a possibility, but it will be hard to outbid the Jets. The only realistic option left is Garoppolo, who also has a history with McDaniels. There is a chance the veteran QB might stay in San Francisco or go to replace Brady in Tampa Bay. Still, the allure of playing in McDaniels' scheme again will likely be the clinching argument.
Geno Smith: Signs extension with Seahawks
There is an outside chance Seattle pivots here. They have the 5th overall pick. It's possible they decide to go after a top QB in the draft rather than pay Smith $30+ million per year. The truth is Pete Carroll isn't likely to do that. He's in his 70s. Starting over with a new quarterback isn't feasible for him anymore. Smith had an excellent year in 2022, making his first Pro Bowl. His teammates seem to love him. The likely path forward is him signing an extension and Seattle trying to make a run in the NFC.
Impact on the Bears
Truth be told, the Chicago Bears couldn't ask for a much better outcome than this. If the goal is to trade that #1 pick, then they need as many teams in the top 10 as possible to not secure a legitimate starter. Based on these projections, the only one to do so is the Raiders, who pick 7th overall. Houston (#2), Indianapolis (#4), Atlanta (#8), and Carolina (#9) all fail to secure top options. The same is true for Tennessee at #11. That gives Poles a healthy market of teams to negotiate with.
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