The Chicago Bears don't yet know what the market for the #1 overall pick will be. That is because other teams seeking quarterback help haven't determined their own plans. Until that happens, the phones won't be ringing too much. Answers won't be forthcoming until March when the off-season begins. Several prominent veterans could be available. Depending where they go will have a significant impact on what any trade market for the 1st pick will look like.
So this might be a good time to look at the landscape and determine where the big names will go based on the information available. Then we will examine if it benefits the Bears or hurts them. If we're going to start somewhere, we might as well start with the G.O.A.T himself.
Tom Brady - Signs with the Las Vegas Raiders
This feels like almost a foregone conclusion. Brady will leave Tampa Bay. Everybody knows it. The Raiders are the favorite because Josh McDaniels is the head coach. He shares a long, fruitful relationship with Brady from their time in New England together. Las Vegas has Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow as receiving options. Last but not least, they play in a dome. All of those factors benefit a quarterback of Brady's age. Money won't be a huge issue once Derek Carr is out of the picture.
Lamar Jackson - Franchise tagged by Baltimore Ravens
Extension talks remain deadlocked between the two sides. Baltimore higher-ups remain adamant that they are committed to getting Jackson inked long-term. Still, the quarterback isn't budging from whatever his demands are. That is why the Ravens are likely to franchise tag him. There is an outside possibility they trade him after doing so, but that doesn't feel realistic. The acquiring team would need a vast amount of draft capital and also pay a massive contract extension. Possible, yes. Not likely.
Derek Carr - Signs with New Orleans Saints after getting cut
Las Vegas has until February 15th to trade Carr before a massive contract bonus kicks in. Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract. That means he has to approve any deal they make. The odds of that happening are remote. All signs point to him getting cut and choosing his destination as a free agent. New Orleans has the ideal setup. They're a dome team like the Raiders, boast a solid offensive line, and have some excellent weapons led by Chris Olave. On top of that, they're in a weak division.
Daniel Jones - Re-signs with the New York Giants
Some will debate whether it's wise for the Giants to invest a massive new contract in Jones, but they have little choice. He was a big reason for their turnaround in 2022 and their playoff win over Minnesota. He's done enough to earn that extension. New York will give it to him. There are zero signs that he will test the open market. Perhaps the Giants will use the franchise tag to buy some time for negotiations. Either way, don't expect him to go anywhere but back to the Big Apple.
Geno Smith - Re-signs with the Seattle Seahawks
This situation is similar to the Giants. Smith was very good in 2022, but does anybody think he can get the Seahawks to a Super Bowl? Alas, Seattle has little choice. Either they re-sign him or take their chances on a rookie quarterback with that 5th overall pick. Pete Carroll is in his 70s. So the answer is obvious. Smith will return, and the Seahawks will focus the draft on improving the roster.
Aaron Rodgers - Stays in Green Bay
This one is the toughest to predict. Rodgers is as mercurial as ever. Nobody knows what he's going to do. A trade is certainly possible, but it's hard not to feel like going to Jordan Love would still be a downgrade from Green Bay's perspective. There will be plenty of rumblings. The Chicago Bears would love nothing better than to see him gone. However, everything points to him either retiring or running it back for another season in green and gold.
Jimmy Garoppolo - Signs with the New York Jets
After the Zach Wilson fiasco, the Jets will likely be gunshy about going the draft route again. That regime needs to reach the playoffs in 2023, or they run the risk of getting fired. After whiffing on Brady, Carr, and Rodgers, they'll be left with few other options. Garoppolo is hardly an elite name, but he's still better than anything they have on the current roster. He can be a bridge option until they find somebody else.
So how would this impact the Chicago Bears?
It is an outcome fans should be rooting for. The one thing they don't want is for several teams in the top 10 who need quarterbacks to find their guy on the veteran market. Once the dust settles, only one such team does so with Brady to the Raiders. Houston (#2), Indianapolis (#4), Atlanta (#8), and Carolina (#9) all go into the draft stretch with no solution at quarterback. That will increase the sense of desperation to land somebody in that top 10. With Houston and Indianapolis both lurking, the only way to get their preferred guy would be handing the Chicago Bears a bag to snare the #1 overall pick.
Perhaps there will be one or two surprises, but everything points to the market for #1 being extra fierce once the draft draws closer in April.
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