Proof Chicago Bears Have Better Shot At NFC North Than You Think

The Chicago Bears aren't the popular pick to win the division this season. That is hardly a surprise. They went 3-14 last year and have plenty of question marks remaining about their roster. Discussions of the NFC North center around the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Rodgers is gone, so the Packers are out. Minnesota won the division last year. Detroit won eight of their final ten games of the season. Both have valid reasons to think they're the favorites to win the crown.

However, there is one reason to think the Bears' odds aren't as long as some would have you believe. An interesting stat came out recently via Fantasy Points Data. It graphs every starting quarterback from last year, covering their number of turnover-worthy throws versus their number of interceptions. Two things become immediately apparent. Lions quarterback Jared Goff got away with a ton of throws that should've been picked off. Meanwhile, Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins had lots of interceptions and should've had even more.

The Chicago Bears can trust NFL karma to do its job.

One thing about this league is that luck doesn't last forever. Goff's final three years in Los Angeles saw him throw 29 interceptions. His going nine straight games last season without an interception last year is not going to happen again. Not with his track record. Cousins is no different. He's proven many times over the years that he puts the ball in harm's way. Don't forget six of Minnesota's victories last year were decided by four points or less. Their margin for error was razor-thin. If he throws 14 interceptions again, they're going to lose quite a few more games.

That is why people shouldn't dismiss the Chicago Bears so easily. Their defense has improved considerably from last year, especially up front. If they can make Goff or Cousins uncomfortable in the meetings to come, that secondary is good enough to make them pay. Maybe Detroit or Minnesota win the division this year. Both are good enough. Still, it would be unwise to hand them anything when both still have legitimate handicaps at the quarterback position.