GM Ryan Poles is likely getting calls from other teams about the #1 overall pick already. Everybody knows the position the Chicago Bears are in. The team is unlikely to draft a quarterback, and they know the Houston Texans probably will at #2. This is why speculation is rampant that Poles will trade the pick if he gets a strong enough offer from somebody. What remains to be seen is which team, if any, ends up coming forward with the one he can't turn down.
The fun part of the discussion is determining which of those teams it will end up being. There is no shortage of possibilities. Much of it depends on what happens with the veteran market. Derek Carr is about to get released. Aaron Rodgers might be traded. Lamar Jackson too. Wherever they end up will impact the trade outlook for Chicago. With where things stand, here is a ranking of every conceivable team that might seek #1 and who is the favorite to pull the trigger.
The Chicago Bears will have several teams looking into the #1 pick.
8. New York Jets
It isn't a secret the Jets are planning a change at quarterback. They should always be considered in something like this. However, the recent failure of Zach Wilson as a #2 overall pick has likely spooked GM Joe Douglas about trying the draft route again. All signs point to them being aggressive on the veteran market, with Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr as their primary targets. Now if they fail to land any of them, things could change but don't count on the Jets being a major player.
7. Atlanta Falcons
The Marcus Mariota experiment didn't go as hoped for Atlanta. They have more than enough cap space to make a run at a top veteran if they wish. Lamar Jackson is certainly a name worth watching. That said, the team spent a 3rd round pick on Desmond Ridder last year. They seem interested in giving him an opportunity after a strong finish in the season finale against Tampa Bay.
6. Seattle Seahawks
People might be shocked by this. Don't be. Everybody assumes Seattle will stay the course with Geno Smith at quarterback. Then again, no extension is done yet. They may not be keen on paying the 32-year-old over $30 million per year. The Seahawks hold two 1st round picks, including the 5th overall. It wouldn't be difficult for them to put together a package the Chicago Bears would find attractive. This comes down to two factors: whether they think Smith can win them a championship and if Pete Carroll is open to developing a rookie.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders would be near the bottom of the list if Tom Brady were still slated to enter free agency. His retirement changes things. Now they're looking at two viable options. Either they trade for Rodgers or sign Jimmy Garoppolo. If they get neither, they instantly become a strong possibility to move up. There is no way Josh McDaniels gets out of this off-season without a quarterback he's happy with. The challenge will be finding the capital necessary to entice the Bears.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Ryan Tannehill experiment had a good run. That seems over now. Malik Willis was an interesting gamble, but that flopped. Tennessee is trapped in a quarterback-loaded AFC, and now two of their division rivals (Houston and Indianapolis) are in a position to get ones of their own. Unless the Titans can somehow land Rodgers or Carr, which seems unlikely, then they have to make a splash in the draft. New GM Ran Carthon is familiar with these types of moves. He was in the 49ers front office that jumped up in the 2021 draft for Trey Lance. If there is a guy he and head coach Mike Vrabel covet, they won't fear making a move.
3. Carolina Panthers
One of the key factors in blockbuster trades is having a vocal owner who isn't afraid to get involved. David Tepper fits that profile. After the Panthers whiffed on veterans like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, the possibility is high that they will be aggressive in the draft. They have the ammunition to do it after trading Christian McCaffrey. Perhaps they might try a more modest move up to #3, hoping the guy they want doesn't go to Houston. Then again, after years of frustrating quarterback ineptitude, they may decide enough is enough.
2. Houston Texans
The Texans are going to take a quarterback. Everybody knows that. It comes down to how much they fear somebody else jumping in front of them. If so, it isn't a huge issue. Thanks to the Deshaun Watson blockbuster with Cleveland, they have tons of assets to trade. They can ship a few Day 2 picks to Chicago and still have the 12th overall pick in their back pocket. GM Nick Caserio doesn't have to chance anything. He could swap spots with the Bears and still have plenty of ammunition left to retool his roster. Conversely, Poles would get those extra picks he wants and not worry about losing out on the best prospect he has on his board.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Everything about it makes sense. The Colts have to fear their divisional rival Texans getting the QB they want at #2. They've exhausted the veteran route with misses on Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Last but not least, GM Chris Ballard has a relationship with Poles from their time together in Kansas City. It all lines up. Chicago would likely see it as a prime spot at #4. They should be able to get that future 1st round pick while also being in a position to land either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson. Don't forget Jim Irsay, another outspoken owner that has made his displeasure known in the past few months.
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