Realistic Price For Jimmy Garoppolo Based On Other QB Trades

It took longer than other teams but the Chicago Bears finally have a major quarterback rumor on their hands. They've become the latest team attached in trade speculation to New England Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo. Jason La Canfora revealed in a lengthy CBS Sports piece that the team has been doing their homework on the 25-year old. It's felt they will try to make a play for him before the draft over the next couple months. https://twitter.com/ErikLambert1/status/827269341003468801 There is still so much to sort through and it's not clear if this rumor is true. All that can be said at this point is it makes plenty of sense. Garoppolo is experienced, so John Fox wouldn't have to start a rookie. He's also young, so Ryan Pace would be able to build around him. An Illinois-native, he grew up watching the Bears in Arlington Heights and made a name for himself at Eastern Illinois University. To top it off he's been groomed by some of the best coaching minds in the game. If he's not ready now, he'll never be ready. The only question left is what will it cost to get him? Initial rumors indicated the Patriots will be seeking a first round pick and maybe an extra mid rounder as well. Since then some anonymous executives around the league have been quoted stating they feel he's worth closer to a second or even third rounder. Given the Patriots gave up a late second to get him back in 2014, odds are they'd like a higher return for him. Perhaps the best way to help gauge what Garoppolo might fetch is to compare with previous trades for former backup quarterbacks. This will involve what pick they were originally drafted with, how old they were at the time of the trade and how many games they'd started.

Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers)

• Former 2^nd round pick
• 23-years old
• 0 games started
• Compensation: 19^th overall pick

Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks)

• Former 6^th round pick
• 26-years old
• 0 games started
• Compensation: Swap 1^st rounders (10^th for 17^th) and a 3^rd rounder

Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)

• Former 2^nd round pick
• 27-years old
• 7 games started
• Compensation: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2^nd rounder

Charlie Whitehurst (Seattle Seahawks)

• Former 3^rd round pick
• 28-years old
• 0 games started
• Compensation: Swap 2^nd rounders (40^th for 60^th) and 3^rd rounder

Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)

• Former 7^th rounder
• 27-years old
• 15 games started
• Compensation: 2^nd round pick

Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)

• Former 3^rd round pick
• 26-years old
• 2 games started
• Compensation: Swap 1^st rounders (8^th for 10^th) and two 2^nd rounders

Rob Johnson (Buffalo Bills)

• Former 4^th round pick
• 25-years old
• 1 game started
• Compensation:  1^st rounder and 4^th rounder

A few takeaways from these deals? For the most part it's actually good news. Four of the seven names listed went to at least one Pro Bowl on the team that traded for them. Another is the cost seems tied heavily to the age of the player. Look at the list and generally the younger of the quarterbacks cost more to get. Favre was 23 (1st rounder) and Johnson was 25 (1st and 4th rounders). Garoppolo turned 25 last November. Perhaps the closest comparison is Schaub. Relatively similar draft position. Schaub was a year older but both hold two games of starting experience. In the end it basically cost the Texans two second round picks to get him from Atlanta. Odds are it will be in that same ballpark for the Bears. Ironically they might be helped out by another factor. Garoppolo injuring his shoulder against Miami. [video width="1920" height="1080" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Jimmy-Garoppolo-Injures-Shoulder-Dolphins-vs-Patriots-NFL1.mp4"][/video] That raised a red flag, however minor about whether Garoppolo can take the requisite physicality of the NFL and stay healthy. A team may not be willing to risk multiple high draft choices on something like that. Thus the only way the Patriots likely get a first round pick for him is if they can create a bidding war between the Bears and other teams. Keep in mind both the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers have been connected to him by rumors as well. Both also have more picks to deal. Not to mention higher draft position as well. It's a roadblock, but there is something else that might be going in the Bears favor here. People tend to forget that the player has a certain amount of say in a trade as well. Garoppolo has a particular sort of leverage at his disposal, and it comes from his contract. He's entering the final year of his current rookie deal. That means he will be a free agent in 2018. So any team dealing for him will have to get assurances that he'll sign a contract extension almost immediately. How does this matter? Garoppolo could easily make it clear he has no intentions of signing an extension with those teams. They could of course trade for him and elect to use the franchise tag, but trading for a player who doesn't want to play there and then forcing him to stay is a fast track to disaster. In essence Jimmy could steer the river towards Chicago if he wished. Something Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times alluded to in a recent article.

Jimmy Garoppolo feels the tug of home. It’s usually vocalized by his childhood friends from Arlington Heights, not satisfied with his status as the Patriots’ backup quarterback. They ask him about starting for the Bears. “All the time,” he said.

Then there is the fact the Bears and Patriots have already done business over the past couple years. New England traded for both linebacker Jon Bostic and tight end Martellus Bennett from Chicago. So the two sides have familiarity through communication, and Garoppolo already got a chance to meet with GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox during joint team practices this past preseason. The Bears have the money to hand him a new contract, especially once they part ways with Jay Cutler. At that point it's a matter of draft compensation. Odds are it won't involve the #3 pick this year. None of the trades mentioned earlier went into the top five range. More likely it will be somewhere in the vicinity of two second round choices. Though expensive, the saying doesn't change. If Pace thinks he's getting this team a franchise quarterback, no price is too steep.