Ryan Poles is about to embark on the most crucial two months of his NFL career. Everything he's done over the past decade has built to this moment. He started as a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs, survived a regime change, climbed the ladder to become a top executive for a Super Bowl champion, and turned that into the GM position with the Chicago Bears. Since then, he's hired a new head coach, torn down the roster, survived some ugly stretches on and off the field, and now approaches the critical pivot point of his tenure.
It is time for him to find his quarterback.
Justin Fields spent two years trying to lock the job down. While he didn't always have much help, he didn't do enough to justify Poles passing on a QB with the #1 pick for the second year in a row. Everyone thinks the Bears are taking a quarterback, and the heavy favorite is Caleb Williams from USC. It might be premature to assume this is the case, but here are some reasons to think those assumptions are accurate.
Several factors favor Williams in Ryan Poles' eyes.
Rookie contract
There is one inescapable truth about the NFL these days. Quarterbacks are expensive. Not just the great ones, either. Even the mediocre ones are costing $40 million per year these days. Fields' projected 5th-year option, were the Bears to keep him, would cost around $25 million. Conversely, the #1 pick in the draft will cost them $41 million across four years. Such a manageable price at the most critical position in the support can be invaluable when it comes to building the roster elsewhere. Poles already watched New York reward Daniel Jones with a big contract they already regret. He has no desire to get caught in the same trap.
The Patrick Mahomes vibes
By far, the Chiefs' superstar quarterback is the most popular pro comparison for Williams. It stems from his incredible improvisation ability, using his legs to buy time and throwing deadly accurate shots down the field. His playmaking instincts are off the charts, as was the case for Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech. This feels important since Poles was the director of player personnel in Kansas City when they selected Mahomes 10th overall in 2017. If he feels like the comparisons have at least some validity, there is no way he's going to pass on that opportunity.
Experience
Ryan Poles hasn't drafted a quarterback yet, so it is difficult to gauge what his preferences are. However, based on the acquisition of undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent and the Chiefs' track record for most of his time there, the GM highly values QBs with experience. That is to say, they started a lot of games and threw a lot of passes. Williams started 34 total games between Oklahoma and USC. During that span, he threw 1,088 passes. For context, Fields started 22 games and threw 579 passes. Mitch Trubisky started 13 games and threw 447 passes. Does this matter? Based on recent history, successful NFL quarterbacks averaged at least 25 starts and over 800 passes in college. C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Mahomes all fit that criteria. So does Williams.
Lincoln Riley connection
Sometimes, it's important to trust the track record of a coach when it comes to developing certain positions. Few in college football have done better at consistently producing good quarterbacks than Riley. It started with Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, then moved to Hurts, Kyler Murray, and now Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both #1 overall picks. Mayfield now has a playoff win with two different teams. Murray made two Pro Bowls. Hurts reached the Super Bowl last year. The crazy thing is Williams might be the best overall prospect he's produced to date. His reputation for identifying good players at the position suggests the Bears can trust making this pick.
Surviving the spotlight
One thing Poles said that really sticks out is he's searching for a quarterback that can not only play well in the NFL but also play well in Chicago. He knows how tough this city can be. It's a pressure cooker. If you don't perform, the fans will turn on you fast. It takes a large degree of mental toughness to play in this city. Williams can understand that. He's played quarterback for two of the most prominent college programs in the country, both with rabid fanbases that have decorated histories at the position. That comes with lots of pressure, and he still managed to perform.
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