Ryan Pace entered his sixth offseason as Chicago Bears GM this past January. It came on the heels of one of the most disappointing seasons this side of the new millennium. A team that had Super Bowl aspirations after going 12-4 the year before stumbled to an 8-8 finish. It marked the fourth time in five seasons that the Bears had failed to reach a winning record and marked the end of a decade in which they made the playoffs just twice.
Ask people what they think of Pace these days and the answers are all over the map. Some still think he's done a tremendous job building a talented roster that is capable of competing for a championship. Others think his bold, often reckless decision-making led to some highly questionable acquisitions that have come back to haunt the franchise once too often.
This leads to the most important question. Is his job in jeopardy? Nobody can answer that with any degree of confidence. It's clear Bears ownership loves him. At the same time, patience only goes so far for everybody. It feels like Pace is creeping towards the ledge and unless he delivers, he'll be left with so many unfulfilled promises.
Ryan Pace inherited a mess
One thing people cannot and should not say about Pace is that he fears a challenge. He took on the biggest one of any GM in the NFL back in 2015. The Bears were the equivalent of a plane that had just smashed into the side of a mountain. They had the oldest roster in the league with a locker room deeply fractured by internal divisions that were allowed to fester by a woefully unprepared coaching staff led by Marc Trestman.
So not only did Pace have to rebuild a spent roster. He had to completely revamp the team culture from the ground up. For that, he needed the right head coach. His choice ended up being John Fox. Few came with better resumes than him. He'd helped rebuild two different teams into Super Bowl contenders in Carolina and Denver. Fox was known for his motivational skills and ability to foster team unity.
To that extent, the hiring was a success. Players who were considered personality problems were systematically moved out either via trade or release. Pace felt he had the right guy running the show. All he had to do now was get the roster construction off on the right foot. With the 7th overall pick in the draft, the opportunity was there for the taking.
The start of a troubling trend
It didn't take long for people to realize that the young GM had no fear of taking risks. Kevin White was a physical specimen coming out of West Virginia. A 6'3 kid with a chiseled physique and 4.35 speed. He certainly looked the part of a future superstar wide receiver. Sure he was underdeveloped with just one season as a starter at the Division I level but the Bears were rebuilding anyway. He'd have enough time to figure things out. Pace was willing to gamble on the talent.
So the Bears drafted him. The first time they'd taken a receiver in the top 10 in 14 years. It might be the last for a long time too. The tone for White's career was set from the outset when he suffered a leg fracture before he even joined the team for training camp. He landed on Injured Reserve and would miss his entire rookie season. Injuries would become his ultimate fate. In four seasons, White played just 14 games.
He's now out of the league at age 27.
Pace did not learn his lesson from that misfire. At least not right away. This tendency to gamble on high-upside athletes with limited production to back it up continued. A year later he traded a 4th round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to jump up from #11 overall to #9 in order to draft Georgia linebacker Leonard Floyd. Like White, Floyd was a pre-draft standout. A freak athlete with size, length, and tremendous speed. The Bears GM saw a guy who looked like a future sack artist. This despite having just 17 sacks in 37 college games.
There were certainly flashes. Games where Floyd looked dominant getting after the quarterback. However, as time went on those flashes became less and less frequent. He also had problems staying healthy. Things finally bottomed out in 2019. Despite playing all 16 games without injury setbacks, he had just three sacks. It was a major letdown and forced the Bears to part ways with him.
Just like that, Pace's original two 1st rounders were gone. Neither having reached a second contract with the team. Yet as amazing as it sounds, this has been overshadowed by the true crux of why Pace has underachieved in Chicago.
The quarterback problem
Unlike a lot of general managers who start out, Ryan Pace had to wait for his opportunity to get a quarterback. The Bears still had Jay Cutler when he took over and the veteran was under an expensive contract. So Pace had no choice but to try and make things work. Something his predecessors Jerry Angelo and Phil Emery had been unable to. There was some initial success that first year. Cutler had the most efficient season of his career with the Bears, finishing with a 92.3 passer rating.
Sadly things didn't last. Thing crashed back to earth in 2016. Cutler struggled and the Bears finished 3-13. The time had finally come for a change. Going into 2017, Pace had tons of salary cap space and the #3 overall pick in the draft. This presented a golden opportunity to completely remake the most important position on his roster.
There were certainly options on the table. Ryan Fitzpatrick was available, fresh off a season where he threw 31 touchdown passes and led the New York Jets to a 10-6 record. There was also Colin Kaepernick who'd taken San Francisco to a Super Bowl back in 2012. Even Nick Foles was out there, a guy who'd reached the Pro Bowl in 2013 and was still just 28.
Pace instead chose to roll the dice on Mike Glennon.
A former 3rd round pick, he'd spent most of his time as a backup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was tall with a decent arm and had some nice moments whenever given an opportunity to start. Yet to hand him a $45 million contract? That was the first instance that people wondered if Pace had the ability to gauge the true value of that position. In hindsight, they didn't need to wait long for confirmation of this.
Going into the 2017 draft, it was basically a three-QB race. There was reigning national champion Deshaun Watson of Clemson, rocket-armed gunslinger Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech, and unexpected late-riser Mitch Trubisky of North Carolina. Contrary to popular belief, it was a tossup as to who might be the first one off the board. Experts were divided.
Watson was the most proven but had health concerns. Mahomes was a stat machine but never really won much. Trubisky seemed like the safest option with his strong accuracy and leadership qualities. The problem was he'd only started one season. So inexperience was a major concern. Who Pace took could define his tenure in Chicago.
In the end, he went with Trubisky.
The decision by itself wouldn't have raised a ton of eyebrows. That is if it wasn't for how it all went down. Word came out years later that Pace had pretty much settled on Trubisky before the pre-draft process began when he witnessed the QB live at the Sun Bowl against Stanford. While he also had an interest in Mahomes, the Chicago Tribune revealed that the Bears GM didn't even bother to meet with Watson. A baffling oversight for a man who was supposedly known for his attention to detail.
It didn't stop there. Pace even compounded his mistake by actually trading up from #3 overall to #2 to get Trubisky. A move that cost the Bears three additional picks. For a player that many felt would've almost certainly been there if he'd just waited.
Three seasons later? Mahomes is an MVP and Super Bowl champion. Watson is a two-time Pro Bowler with a career 101.0 passer rating. Trubisky has experienced an up-and-down career marked by a lack of progress in his maturation as a passer. This despite Pace replacing Fox with the quarterback-centric Matt Nagy to help him.
Nevermind the fact that Glennon, his supposed $45 million bridge option lasted all of four games before getting benched.
To date, Pace has yet to make a decision at quarterback that makes one think he knows what he's doing. It is hard not to feel like his recent trade for Nick Foles feels like a last gasp Hail Mary to save himself.
His saving grace
So if it's been like that, how in the world is Pace still employed? This is where his legacy becomes so complicated. For all the missteps the GM has made trying to forge a functional NFL offense, his work on the Bears defense can be considered nothing short of superlative.
One must remember the Bears defense allowed 442 in 2014. The second-most ever in the 16-game era. With a series of shrewd draft moves, free agent signings, and trades he transformed it into one of the best seen in almost a decade by 2018.
- Eddie Goldman (2nd round, 2015)
- Adrian Amos (5th round, 2015)
- Akiem Hick (Free agent, 2016)
- Danny Trevathan (Free agent, 2016)
- Prince Amukamara (Free agent, 2017)
- Eddie Jackson (4th round, 2017)
- Roquan Smith (1st round, 2018)
- Khalil Mack (Trade, 2018)
That defense has finished in the top 5 each of the past two seasons. One of the best in the NFL. Now it'll have company in the form of Robert Quinn, fresh off 11.5 sacks last season who will replace Floyd opposite Mack. If anything has kept Pace in the good graces of Bears ownership, it is his ability to bring back a true Monsters of the Midway defense to Chicago.
The last stand?
Defense is beloved in this town. That much is clear. Still, Pace is in danger of following the footsteps of previous GMs. Guys who wasted great defenses because of their inability to find a good enough quarterback to compliment them. Jerry Angelo is the poster child for that reality. Pace is in danger of not even reaching the heights he did with just one playoff appearance in the past five seasons.
Nobody knows what George McCaskey is thinking. The Bears owner has stayed patient, believing in the plan his GM put forth. Even so, the NFL is a results-based business. If Pace can't deliver at least a winning season in 2020, can they justify keeping him around for another year?
Not really.
Thus far the offseason has followed the same trend it has since he arrived. Encouraging moves on defense. Questionable ones on offense. Overpaying a 33-year old tight end Jimmy Graham? Trading for the streaky Foles? It doesn't feel like that is enough to transform the 27th ranked offense into something more respectable. There is still time with the draft coming up but without a 1st round pick, it's hard to trust Pace can score enough hits to truly make an immediate difference.
He better hope he can. Otherwise, his memory will fade into Bears lore as one of so much potential wasted.
