Ryan Pace was the youngest GM in the NFL when he was hired in 2015. It became clear the Chicago Bears desperately wanted to go in a new and different direction. They felt he could lead them into the 21st century on how to run a successful organization. They certainly didn't hand him an easy task. The roster was the oldest in the NFL and had no discernable stars to trade for draft picks. So he had to start from scratch and build.
All things considered, he did the job. After a painful rebuilding process that took three losing seasons and four offseason, he constructed a talented roster that went 12-4 in 2018 and came a missed kick away from winning their first playoff game in almost a decade. Most expected the team to get back again this year but the wheels seem to have come off. Chicago is 3-5 with little hope of getting back into the mix.
A big reason for that is many of Pace's biggest decisions seem to be coming back to haunt him all at once. This has helped to reveal a disturbing trend in regards to how the GM operates. One that can have devastating consequences if mishandled. What is it exactly?
Ryan Pace takes huge gambles on the "potential"
Pace is a former scout. He worked all the way up the ladder to lead his own team, so he views everything through those eyes. This isn't a bad thing. Scouts are trained to have eyes for talent. However, that can sometimes come with a caveat. They tend to fall a little bit too in love with that big P-word: potential. Their vision becomes so clouded by what a player (or coach) could be rather than what they are and sometimes fail to strike a needed balance between the two.
The Bears GM has continually showcased this exact drawback, and it's proving detrimental to his franchise.
Kevin White - One year of production at West Virginia
Now one could make an argument that Pace wasn't really at fault with White. He had no way of knowing the wide receiver would become a walking injury report in the NFL. The kid had a clean history by the time he was drafted. One could chalk this up to simple bad luck. At the same time, it was still a considerable risk since White had only played one season of Division I college football, spending the previous years at the JUCO level.
Granted, everybody had White labeled as a top 10 pick so nobody criticized the move. Still, if it's your first-ever pick, one would think Pace would've preferred a player with a little more proven track record. Somebody like Melvin Gordon who'd dominated as a running back at Wisconsin. Or maybe Andrus Peat, the big and tough tackle from Stanford who is now a Pro Bowl guard in New Orleans. They might not have had the bigger ceilings but they certainly looked like they'd have long, productive NFL careers.
Leonard Floyd - Not a full-time rusher at Georgia
Pace provided a further example of his disregard for proven production when he secured Floyd 9th overall in 2016. The Bears needed pass rush help and there was no question the Georgia linebacker had loads of potential. He was 6'6 with outstanding burst and quickness. Perhaps if he was able to add a bit more mass to his frame and the power to go with it, he could be a terror. At the same time, others looked at his college production and shrugged.
For all that potential, Floyd seemed to be awfully light in terms of big impact plays. In 37 college games, he had just 17 sacks. That trend has actually held pretty steady into the pros with 18.5 sacks in 46 games. College production doesn't always indicate whether a player will be good in the NFL or not, but lack of it certainly offers a big hint. One the GM chose to ignore.
Mitch Trubisky - One year as a starter at North Carolina
This is the biggest one that people can't get over, for obvious reasons. Pace had the #3 pick in the 2017 draft. Three top quarterbacks were available. While all were similar in terms of physical talent, the one who stood out in a concerning way was Trubisky. Why? He'd decided to declare for the draft after starting just one year in college. Some feared he hadn't had enough time to learn the deeper intricacies of playing quarterback and that might have a detrimental effect on his NFL development.
Those concerns have since been validated. As defenses began to adjust to what Trubisky likes to do, he's found himself overwhelmed by the speed of the game and unable to catch up. He's making the same mistakes he did as a rookie and no longer creating big plays like he used to. Like so many young quarterbacks, the pro level is chewing him up and spitting him out.
Matt Nagy - Half a season as an NFL play caller
It was clear as day that Pace wanted a similar setup to what the Saints have in New Orleans with the head coach (Sean Payton) being the play caller on offense. It's not a bad idea as several teams have had success do this. However, it's heavily reliant on one key factor. The coach has to actually be a good play caller. Nagy certainly showed promising signs when he took over those duties in 2017 halfway through the Kansas City Chiefs season. However, it was still only half a season.
Defenses hadn't seen his scheming long enough to determine if he was truly effective at both game planning and adjusting. Time has shown that Nagy, while still effective at getting receivers open, has a hard time adjusting to in-game situations and molding the system to better fit his personnel. It feels like Nagy is a guy with great ideas but is still learning the pitfalls of what it means to coordinate offense in the NFL.
