Ryan Poles Has An Actual Percentage On Likelihood Bears Trade #1 Pick

Ryan Poles is either so confident that he'll get a massive package for the #1 overall pick or he is playing one of the most brilliant games of subterfuge in recent memory. The Chicago Bears GM has made it clear he isn't afraid to stay at #1 overall. However, the man has stated multiple times in recent days that he is getting serious interest from teams wanting to trade for it. That isn't a surprise. Several teams need quarterbacks. Chicago holds the key to getting whichever one in this draft class they covet most.

Poles stated in interviews that three teams have been persistent in talks lately. He feels confident he can land at least a future 1st round pick in both 2024 and 2025. That would be a massive package that could set the Bears up for years to come. He's in no hurry. The veteran QB market isn't finished yet. Derek Carr signed with New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers is talking to the Jets about a trade. Daniel Jones re-signed with New York. Lamar Jackson was franchise tagged. Things are coming into focus. Poles stated to Albert Breer of the MMQB that while nothing is certain, he has a strong sense of the odds this trade happens.

“For sure, that’s been a part of a lot of conversations—What would it take to do something now?” Poles says. “It’s really early right now, so it would take a lot to close the door. And then the other thing is just adding to the premium is if a player, a veteran player, was in the mix. To me, then [trading the pick early] allows us to be a little bit more precise in free agency. So that would be the other factor, too.”

So given all that, what are the chances that the pick will actually get moved?

“Strong,” Poles says. “Over 50%.”

What Ryan Poles is doing is not normal.

GMs don't say things like this in public. If anything, that might be working in his favor. His utter brashness and lack of concern about total secrecy might be throwing teams for a loop. They aren't sure what to believe and that is causing them to panic. There is no clear pecking order to these quarterbacks. When that is the case, it's impossible to know which of them is favored by teams. It starts with Houston at #2. Since nobody knows which quarterback they prefer, it creates genuine fear that they'll take somebody another team may covet.

That is why Ryan Poles feels certain his chances are better than half that he can trade the #1 pick for a package he wants. It's been a long time since the Bears had a GM like this operating with such confidence and sense of purpose. He has a plan and is executing it to perfection. There is no telling what will happen next. Yes, the pick will likely be dealt. We merely wait to find out who the lucky winner is.