Ryan Poles Has Had An Insane Amount Of Luck As General Manager Of The Chicago Bears

The first night of the 2024 NFL Draft will go down as a franchise-altering event for the Chicago Bears as they selected quarterback Caleb Williams first overall and then wide receiver Rome Odunze ninth overall. General manager Ryan Poles' rebuild of the Bears' roster since the beginning of 2022 is complete, as the offense will take the field in their first game of 2024 as a completely different roster. Although Poles has proven himself as a solid talent evaluator, he has been aided by sheer luck that helped put Chicago in the dream scenario that was last night's first round.

Almost Every Bounce Has Gone The Bears' Way Since Poles Has Taken Over As A General Manager

Following his hiring in January of 2022, Poles has worked relentlessly to overhaul Chicago's roster, which was declining and lacking young talent after the 2021 season. The Bears' general manager made it clear that the team would need to bottom out in 2022 with the hope of getting a top-five selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. During his first year in Chicago, Poles traded several of the remaining talented defensive players, which led to the team having the worst defense and finishing 2022 with only three wins. 

Despite only having three wins, the Bears needed massive luck to secure the first overall selection with a Texans win over the Colts in the final week of the 2022 season. Chicago's former head coach, Lovie Smith, oversaw a last-second Houston victory over Indianapolis, which led to the Bears landing the first overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Texans, with losing more by winning, scored on an improbable touchdown and then scored a two-point conversion to win the game. 

In the offseason following 2022, Poles could have held on to the first overall selection but traded it to the highest bidder in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers not only gave up a quantity of high-value draft choices but also one of the best young wide receivers in DJ Moore. Although Poles was trying to allow quarterback Justin Fields to prove that he was Chicago's franchise quarterback, the general manager was gambling one of the team's two first-round selections in the 2024 NFL Draft becoming the first overall pick to allow for the taking of Williams. 

Poles had improbable luck strike again as not only did Carolina finish as the worst team in 2023, resulting in Chicago securing the first overall selection, but the Bears also finished just bad enough to have their selection be in the top ten of the draft. The roster had a solid mid-season turnaround, winning five of their last eight games while displaying elite-level defensive capabilities. The defensive turnaround enabled Poles to retain embattled head coach Matt Eberflus and focus solely on retooling the offense, whether it was hiring Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator, signing free agent D'Andre Swift, or trading for perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen. 

The luck struck again on Thursday night of the draft as the first eight selections played out to where the Bears were able to draft Odunze without having to trade up. Poles was so sold on the Washington pass-catcher so much that he had to be convinced not to trade up out of fear of missing out. The Atlanta Falcons' decision to draft Michael Penix instead of taking Odunze or trading the selection to a different team enabled Chicago to get the wide receiver of their choice, which was nearly impossible. 

Whether it was the Texans' miraculous win over the Colts, the Panthers being the worst team in 2023, or the Falcons taking a quarterback when they had already signed Kirk Cousins to a 100 million-dollar contract a month prior, the number of breaks Poles has gotten is historic. A process that involved mistakes by multiple NFL franchises over two years allowed Chicago to get a generational talent in Williams while also adding arguably the best all-around wide receiver in the 2024 Draft. Poles has done the needed work to find quality players via the draft over the last two offseason, but his two most significant selections came last night, with luck being a contributing factor. 

Poles' Historic Luck Makes Up For Years Of Bad Draft Luck For Chicago

All the breaks that culminated in the drafting of Williams and Odunze on Thursday night make up for years of poor luck, sometimes self-inflicted, that has plagued Chicago. There have been too many instances where the Bears either missed out on an All-Pro player because of poor scouting or due to another team making the selection one spot before them. Drafting players like Shea McClellin and Mitchell Trubisky while elite talents such as Chandler Jones and Patrick Mahomes were available is a prime example of botched selections. 

Additionally, there have been moments where the draft simply didn't break in the team's favor, like in 2014 when the Rams selected All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald one spot before the Bears, who were in dire need of a defensive line talent. One year later, Chicago drafted wide receiver Kevin White, who was seen as a can't-miss prospect and was compared to All-Pro pass-catcher Julio Jones. White's career was deemed a failure not because of a talent issue but because of health issues, as he only played in 14 games total over four years with the Bears. 

From a general manager standpoint involving draft trade, Chicago has been on the wrong side for quite some time over the past 26 years. In 1998, Bears' executive Mark Hatley tried to trade out of the fifth selection in the 1998 NFL Draft but couldn't get an offer he liked, resulting in the team taking running back Curtis Enis. A year later, Hatley traded down five spots with Washington Redskins, but did nothing significant with the draft pick collected in the trade, as Chicago's first-round quarterback Cade McNown was out of the league two years later. In 2017, general manager Ryan Pace traded up one spot to select Trubisky, fearing another team could jump Chicago, which resulted in the team overpaying when they didn't need to. 

Poles getting the best quarterback prospect in recent memory and pairing it with a wide receiver who is being compared to Hall of Fame pass-catcher Larry Fitzgerald is remarkable. Williams and Odunze could be franchise cornerstones for years to come, which could result in continuous playoff success. When teams win Super Bowls, it is because of several years spent building a roster through solid scouting and development by the front office, but usually, luck is involved, and we are seeing similar luck grace the Bears.