Ryan Poles has played NFL general manager on easy mode through the first four years of his career. That may sound crazy after what he went through with the Chicago Bears, but it's true. Several key aspects have remained unchanged over that time. He had a top 10 pick in the draft and lots of cap space to spend. For the first time in his tenure, neither of those things will be true. Thanks to their playoff appearance, the Bears will pick at least 19th next spring, and that number goes up if they beat the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night.
Not only that, but the Bears also currently project to be $200,000 over the salary cap. Even with expected moves to clear space, they should not be expected to do any big spending. That means Poles faces a challenge many GMs have before. He must somehow have a productive offseason despite having no money to spend and later picks in every round. That puts stress on the evaluation capabilities of everybody in that building. Here is how Poles should approach the situation.
Ryan Poles should target a pass rusher, defensive tackle, or cornerback.
In situations like the one the Bears find themselves in, the smart thing to do is play the odds. Yes, there is a chance you can find a star at any position at any time. However, history tends to tell a clear story of which areas are more fruitful in the current range Chicago will be picking compared to others. First and foremost is edge rusher. Since 2015, metrics indicate that at least 70% of the true edge rushers selected between #19 and #32 in the 1st round have become at least solid starters.
- Bud Dupree
- Haason Reddick
- Greg Rousseau
- Jermaine Johnson II
- Boye Mafe
- Will McDonald IV
- Odafe Oweh
- George Karlaftis
- Montez Sweat
- T.J. Watt
Next is cornerback.
Initially, it seemed that Ryan Poles didn't have to worry about that position, but circumstances have since changed. Kyler Gordon can't stay healthy. Nahshon Wright is a free agent. Tyrique Stevenson is in the dog house. They may need some fresh blood. Thankfully, the draft has a 60% hit rate on that position in the late 1st round despite being a premium position.
- Quinyon Mitchell
- Nate Wiggins
- Trent McDuffie
- Greg Newsome
- Jaire Alexander
- Adoree' Jackson
- Marcus Peters
Last but not least is defensive tackle. Gervon Dexter is a good player, but he's not a difference-maker. Grady Jarrett and Andrew Billings are in their 30s. Shemar Turner tore his ACL. They need somebody who can demand attention in the middle. The position tends to yield favorable results, particularly in more recent years.
- Tyleik Williams
- Calijah Kancey
- Bryan Bresee
- Devonte Wyatt
- Jeffery Simmons
- Kenny Clark
- Malcom Brown
Since offense won't be a focus for the Bears, Poles should keep himself squarely intent on targeting one of those positions, and it feels like the defensive line is the safest bet he can possibly make.
