School Histories Say Chicago Bears Should Avoid Drafting These QBs

It's becoming clearer by the day that the Chicago Bears are gearing up to get a quarterback in the NFL draft. That much was alluded to recently when it was revealed by multiple sources that the teams' scouts and front office were hard at work examining the current class. Something that was first hinted at months ago. It shouldn't be a surprise. After watching injuries and erratic play dominate the position in 2016, it's clear GM Ryan Pace is ready to look toward the future. He's patiently bided his time, not taking a quarterback through his first two drafts. Now he has the instrument required to possibly get a franchise-caliber player. That being the #3 overall pick in the draft. Moving forward the mission is clear:  find out which quarterback in this class presents the highest likelihood of having success in the NFL. Almost everything will be considered from personal background, to physical talent and mental intelligence. However, there may be one other area the team should consider very carefully. Most of the time the true abilities of a quarterback are solely based around tape study. How hard can he throw? Is he accurate? Can he move at all? How do his teammates respond to him? Does he perform under pressure? Stats aren't taken into account too often unless they're egregious in either the positive or negative directions. One sometimes overlooked factor that isn't brought up much is school history. It may seem unusual, but trends are a thing even in the football world. Players at certain positions are expected to be successful coming from certain schools. Running backs have always been good out of USC. Louisiana State has done really well with wide receivers. Tennessee has aced the pass rushers. So what about quarterbacks? Looking at the current crop of top QBs in the 2017 draft class, which one comes from the richest legacy?

#1:  Notre Dame (Deshone Kizer)

• 22 drafted
• 6 Pro Bowlers

#2:  Ole Miss (Chad Kelly)

• 10 drafted
• 3 Pro Bowlers

#3:  California (Davis Webb)

• 14 drafted
• 3 Pro Bowlers

#4:  Virginia Tech (Jerod Evans)

• 7 drafted
• 2 Pro Bowlers

#5:  Miami Fl. (Brad Kaaya)

• 9 drafted
• 2 Pro Bowlers

#6:  Clemson (Deshaun Watson)

• 5 drafted
• 0 Pro Bowlers

#7-t:  North Carolina (Mitch Trubisky)

• 6 drafted
• 0 Pro Bowlers

#7-t:  Texas Tech (Patrick Mahomes)

• 6 drafted
• 0 Pro Bowlers

The picture is painted pretty clear. Notre Dame had both the most quarterbacks drafted and by far the most Pro Bowlers.  The program that had the best hit rate though, surprisingly, is Virginia Tech at 42.8%. Two of the seven QBs taken turned into top tier players. Meanwhile the likes of Watson, Trubisky and Mahomes are battling against history. A total of 17 quarterbacks combined between their three schools failed to produce a single Pro Bowler.

THE NFL TREND

Does this trend hold true today in the NFL? Below is a list of 10 of the best currently going in the league and the schools they came from. Those names that are in bold were quarterbacks who became the first in their schools' history to reach at least one Pro Bowl.

• Tom Brady (Michigan)
• Aaron Rodgers (Cal)
• Drew Brees (Purdue)
• Ben Roethlisberger (Miami OH)
• Matt Ryan (Boston College)
• Cam Newton (Auburn)
• Matthew Stafford (Georgia)
• Andrew Luck (Stanford)
• Russell Wilson (Wisconsin)*
• Philip Rivers (N.C. State)

For those noting the asterisk next to Wilson's name, it's because he spent three of his four college seasons at N.C. State and only his last at Wisconsin. It's important to note that his background was indeed influenced by a program known for producing top QBs. This leaves the biggest unanswered question of all.

ALL ABOUT WINNING

Forget Pro Bowls. What about championships? Well between all the schools that produced top quarterbacks, a total of nine championships have been won. As before though, Notre Dame reigns supreme. The Irish have five Super Bowls to their credit with four going to Joe Montana and another to Joe Theismann. Next closest was Ole Miss with three courtesy of Eli Manning and Charlie Conerly. California and Aaron Rodgers delivered the other. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5q01x8bQRhU So for those who believe history plays a part, however big or small, in the potential likelihood of success for a quarterback? This breakdown is pretty clear. If the Bears want a potential franchise guy, then Deshone Kizer has heritage on his side coming out of Notre Dame. Trubisky and Watson have had great success at UNC and Clemson, but they would be the first in many decades to become productive pros from those schools. It's also worth noting one other little detail. Of the six Pro Bowlers drafted out of South Bend since 1936, the Bears actually landed one. His name was Johnny Lujack. Taken back in 1946, he reached two All-Star games in Chicago during his career. Certainly an interesting omen with less than four months before the draft begins.