The Chicago Bears took care of business on Sunday by crushing the Cleveland Browns 31-3. They knew that game was important if they wanted to set up a meaningful rematch with the Green Bay Packers. Sure enough, their arch rivals took a brutal loss in Denver on the same day, and it came at a catastrophic price. Superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons tore his ACL, ending his season. The entire strength of Green Bay's defense this year was its ability to get after the quarterback. Parson was the key to it all. Now they face Caleb Williams again without his speed and closing ability.
Is it really that bad, though? Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune spoke to an NFL pro scout about the situation. He didn't mince words. It is as bad as everybody thinks. Maybe worse.
“Losing Micah Parsons is a complete game changer,” a pro scout said. “That changes everything about their defensive front and their coverage and matchup ability in terms of schemed fronts and schemed pass-rush matchups. They were using Parsons all over that line. Both ends, moving him inside to defensive tackle, looping him inside on stunts.
“Outside of Myles Garrett, he is the biggest difference maker in the NFL on the defensive line. When you lose a player like that, it is not next man up because the next man is not Micah Parsons and he’s not close.”
The worst part is that this will force the Packers to lean on scheming to cover the damage.
They won't be able to constantly rush four guys or play lots of man coverage. It will be a mix of blitzing and zone coverage to try to make Williams uncomfortable and eliminate big plays. These are the fallback options when a team's regular pass rush isn't very good.
“From a defensive perspective, they might have to change how they do some things,” the scout said. “They might have to be more zone-heavy at times. Or they might have to say, ‘We can’t get home. We’ve got to start bringing more pressure.’ That might not be what they want to do, but losing Parsons was the one injury they cannot have outside of Jordan Love."
Such a strategy is unlikely to work against Caleb Williams.
Remember, the Packers played that way last season before they acquired Parsons. In two games against the Bears, Williams completed 44 of 60 passes for 379 yards and a touchdown. That was with bad protection and two different offensive coordinators. His protection is far better this year, and he has Ben Johnson calling the plays. If that weren't enough to prove he could be a big problem for Green Bay, just look at his numbers against zone coverage and the blitz this year.
Caleb vs. zone
174-of-266 for 2,024 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs
Caleb vs. the blitz
89-of-165 for 1,232 yards, 12 TDs, 2 INTs
Don't forget the Packers had 18 pressures on Caleb Williams in the first meeting. Seven of them came from Parsons. That is more than a third. Sacking Williams is hard enough. If you can't pressure him consistently, he will make you pay. There were two games in which he was pressured six times or fewer this season. He has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games. Green Bay better hope their remaining guys can do the job. If they can't, it might be a long night at Soldier Field.
