Should Cameron Meredith Have Bet on Himself? The Stats Are Revealing

The dice are cast now. Cameron Meredith accepted an offer sheet from the New Orleans Saints. It's a two-year deal that could pay him upward of $9.6 million. This means he can make a maximum of $4.8 million over the next two seasons whether it's for the Chicago Bears or the Saints. Most believe Chicago will match this offer. It makes sense. Assumptions were Meredith could get upwards of $5-6 million per year. Matching this deal means GM Ryan Pace will get him for slightly less than that. Considering Meredith is still just 25-years old, this can be considered a win for the Bears. At the same time, it's left many people to wonder. Did the young receiver make a mistake? There are some who think Meredith would've been better off just maintaining the status quo. That is to say play the 2018 season under his tender contract, which is one year at $1.9 million. He could then deliver a strong rebound year and likely garner upwards of $8-10 million as an unrestricted free agent in 2019. An easy thing to say, but do the stats favor him taking such a gamble?

Cameron Meredith would've faced huge challenge betting on himself

In order to answer this question, it's important to get a gauge on how wide receivers have fared coming back from a torn ACL. One must note how they fared the season prior to the injury, the season they were hurt, and then the season of their return. Did the numbers following the injury dip, stay the same or improve? Here are a few notable names who offer a surprising revelation.

Keenan Allen (2017)

• 2015:  725 yards, 4 TDs
• 2016:  Injury
• 2017:  1,393 yards, 6 TDs

Jordy Nelson (2016)

• 2014:  1,519 yards, 13 TDs
• 2015:  Injury
• 2016:  1,257 yards, 14 TDs

Kelvin Benjamin (2016)

• 2014:  1,008 yards, 9 TDs
• 2015:  Injury
• 2016:  941 yards, 7 TDs

Reggie Wayne (2014)

• 2012:  1,355 yards, 5 TDs
• 2013:  Injury
• 2014:  779 yards, 2 TDs

Kenny Britt (2012)

• 2010:  775 yards, 9 TDs
• 2011:  Injury
• 2012:  589 yards, 4 TDs

The numbers offer a mixed view. The two most recent examples, Allen and Nelson, actually improved their numbers after the injury than the years before. Meanwhile Benjamin, Wayne and Britt all saw noticeable dips in their production. Meredith had 888 yards and four touchdowns in 2016. Neither can be considered an insurmountable mark to surpass this season. [video width="854" height="480" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Matt-Barkley-Tosses-a-TD-Strike-to-Cameron-Meredith-Redskins-vs.-Bears-NFL-Week-16-Highlights.mp4"][/video] However, there were several factors for Meredith to consider. First is the arrivals of Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel. They are virtually guaranteed to eat into the number of pass targets he would've seen. A problem Allen and Nelson didn't really have to contend with. They were already established #1 guys. Adding to that? Nelson and Allen were also familiar with their respective quarterbacks. Meredith has never played a single snap with Mitch Trubisky. Meredith is making a clear decision. He'll take two years of decent money, let his knee fully heal and then take a chance in free agency in 2020 when he's 27-year old. Not a bad plan, if not a bold one either.