The thing to remember about
Chicago Bears free agency this year is there's no set way things are certain to go. It's a fluid process that can break all sorts of directions. It heavily depends on variables including what the players involved are seeking and what the GMs involved are willing to offer. Ryan Pace knows this well. This will be his fifth such run through it.
Granted, 2019 figures to be the most challenging to date. The Bears have less than $14 million in cap space this year. By far the lowest Pace has worked with during his tenure. It isn't a danger zone but it will make any sort of bold move difficult. Accomplishing objectives will take creativity and perhaps a necessary sacrifice.
Yet fans can only ask the simple question. What will they do? So in order to at least give them an idea, I've decided to put forth a series of plausible scenarios in which the Bears may approach the coming free agency period. Each of them goes in a particular direction with none being the same.
Scenario #1: All in the Family
This would be the smoothest of scenarios from the Bears' perspective. Rather than run the risk of bringing in outsiders, it would be preferable to keep all the key pieces of the best defense in the NFL in place for 2018. That means finding a way to retain both Amos and Callahan. Something that seemed impossible when the offseason began.
However, the ongoing buzz would seem to indicate otherwise. The safety market is so saturated with solid talent at this point that it is difficult to see Amos getting the type of contract he's hoping for. At the same time, Callahan is reportedly not garnering a lot of attention either, perhaps due to his well-documented history of health issues.
This could end up knocking down their prices enough to where the Bears can keep both.
Scenario #2: Famous Amos
This scenario is centered around keeping Amos. It makes sense from the viewpoint that he's two years younger than Callahan and far less injury-prone. He's formed a strong tandem with
Eddie Jackson on the back end and that trust would be able to keep growing. Corners tend to make more money anyway, so it's a financial consideration as well.
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Justin Coleman isn't quite as credible a slot corner as Callahan, but he's not a slouch either. In his second year as a starter for Seattle, he had a solid year with QBs having just a 90.9 passer rating when targeting him. He also brings value as a blitzer with three sacks the past two seasons.
Scenario #3: Dirty Bryce
This scenario flips the script. Nickel corners are gaining in value every year because of how prevalent the passing game has become. Teams who have good ones would be wise not to let them go. In spite of his health concerns, Callahan is among the best in the league when he's on the field and that's something the Bears need to keep around.
By contrast, strong safeties are easier to replace. Amos was a good player who tackled well and could play the run. Kenny Vaccaro can do all of those things just as well. He's proven that during his time in New Orleans and Tennessee. His connection to Pace makes this an option that holds plenty of weight.
Scenario #4: Roll Tide
The goal of every offseason is to get better. Pace said it himself. That's why he is always aggressive in how he pursues talent. So why should he settle for paying Amos big money when he could spend a couple million more to secure a three-time Pro Bowler instead? Landon Collins seems like such a dream idea for the Bears secondary.
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His tackling, run defense, and instincts are all superior to Amos. He's also proven he can play coverage with good ball skills. Pairing him with Jackson, whom he was actually teammates with at Alabama, seems like such a natural pairing that could dominate for years to come.
As for Jackson? He played safety a lot last year but his natural place is in the slot where he continued to be effective in 2018. Quarterbacks had just a 72.5 passer rating when targeting him. He'll be 32 this year though, so the Bears can probably get him at a discount.
Scenario #5: Strength on strength
It hasn't happened officially yet, but the prevailing belief is the Kansas City Chiefs will cut longtime pass rusher Justin Houston. If so, the Bears become an instant contender for his services. For one they're a defensive town and a Super Bowl contender. They play a 3-4 defensive scheme and would be able to pair him with
Khalil Mack. Last but not least? They have Matt Nagy as head coach, somebody Houston is familiar with.
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It would be hard not to see him as an upgrade over
Leonard Floyd at the edge rush position opposite Mack, even at age 30. He has 18.5 sacks the past two seasons despite missing five games. There is no reason to think he can't continue to be effective, especially when he doesn't have to be THE guy anymore.
From there they'll have to play it cheap with Amos and Callahan gone. Verrett is a failed 1st round pick of the Chargers who has been plagued by injuries his entire career. However, when he's able to stay on the field his coverage always stands out. Mike Mitchell is a veteran strong safety who isn't special in any category but is steady and dependable.
- Scenario #6: Loading up for 2020
- Don't keep Amos or Callahan
- Sign cheap veteran depth
- Draft further competition
- Secure compensatory picks in 2020
Here's the thing people forget. The Bears core is in place. They have a group of budding stars who form their foundation. As good as Amos and Callahan were in 2018, neither of them is part of that group. Sometimes a team must make necessary sacrifices in order to preserve future flexibility.
One thing is certain though. Both should net good deals elsewhere. By not bringing them back and filling the voids with a mixture of cheap veterans and draft picks, the Bears ensure they will likely get two compensatory draft picks in 2020. That would increase their overall total to nine, something Pace can absolutely work with.
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