There may be no hotter seat in the NFL right now than the one under
Chicago Bears head coach John Fox. That's what happens when you lose a Thursday Night game 35-14 to your bitter rival. A game in which the team clearly looked unprepared and out-coached throughout. Fox even admitted as much after the game. At 1-3 (10-26 overall) his future is in the balance and some wonder if the same is true for GM Ryan Pace.
While some hardliners want him gone, others believe his success in the draft over the past two years has made that inadvisable. He's shown enough to prove that getting the head coach position right could turn this franchise into a contender. I was contacted recently by source well-connected in the scouting community. Everything he's heard up to this point paints a clear picture for next offseason.
"Pace survives and replaces Foxy is what my Chicago guys are saying. Bears scouts all think they're safe. I know that."
None of this is set in stone of course. Things change fast in the NFL, as do minds. George McCaskey could just as easily decide to wipe the slate clean and try again. However this is the latest indication that ownership likes Pace and is willing to give him another try at getting the head coach right.
Ryan Pace may already have a plan for what to do next
The source went on to tell me that if Fox is indeed out, the top brass already have their sights set on a particular name. Somebody that Pace knows quite well.
"A lot of the industry elders...veteran guys who are no longer GMs and have relationships with owners...think Sean Payton is the guy in Chicago if ownership Is willing to pay."
This makes perfect sense from a logical point of view. Pace worked with Payton for nine seasons in New Orleans with the Saints. The head coach was disappointed to see him go in 2015 given their strong relationship. There is also the fact Payton lived a good portion of his life in Chicago. He went to high school and college in Illinois and played one season of quarterback for the Bears in 1987.
There's just one problem. Payton signed a 5-year contract extension through 2020 last March. That would seem to indicate he's not going anywhere. Well, not exactly.
Signs show Payton looking to jump ship sooner than later
This isn't the first time buzz has surrounded a possible Payton exit. Last December it surfaced in the news that he was showing "sincere interest" in the vacant Los Angeles Rams job
according to Ian Rapoport.
"With the Los Angeles Rams job open, multiple sources say it is a position Payton is monitoring with sincere interest. For Payton to become the team's new head coach, it would take significant maneuvering behind the scenes to work. One source described the prospects as not imminent or likely but "possible." The Rams, of course, would have to decide he's their overwhelming No. 1."
The Rams did not make a play for Payton, instead going with former Washington offensive coordinator Sean McVay. He went on to report that Payton had designs on getting a job on the west coast. He also eyed the 49ers and Chargers jobs as well. Neither came within striking distance. This would of course raise questions about the Bears position.
Nonetheless there are other factors indicating his likelihood to leave. A big one is the status of quarterback Drew Brees. Not only is the future Hall of Famer turning 39 next year, he'll also be a free agent for the first time since 2006. He signed a one-year extension this offseason to postpone it to 2018. However, his advancing age and expensive cap hit are making it difficult on the team.
Especially when they aren't winning. The Saints finished 7-9 three-straight seasons from 2014 to 2016 and are 1-2 to start this year. A failure to make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row likely could convince the team to let him walk. If Brees walks, almost everybody believes Payton walks too.
Payton comes with loads of credibility but also warning signs
From the simple point of view, hiring Payton is a no brainer for Pace. He's still only 53-years old. His success with Brees proves he could be just what the doctor ordered for Mitch Trubisky and the Bears offense. Last but not least? He has a Super Bowl ring. That comes with a ton of prestige in and of itself.
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That doesn't mean there aren't some concerns. The long playoff drought is certainly one. Perhaps the biggest is his issues on defense. Payton has been the head coach in New Orleans since 2006. During that 10-season span his team has fielded a top 10 defense twice. They've had a defense ranked 20th or lower seven times. He's had five different defensive coordinators over that span.
Some might say he's the offensive version of Lovie Smith, which might not excite Bears fans. One other thing to consider? No head coach who won a Super Bowl with one team has ever taken a job elsewhere and successfully won another. That list includes the following:
- Vince Lombardi (Washington Redskins)
- Hank Stram (New Orleans Saints)
- Tom Flores (Seattle Seahawks)
- Mike Ditka (New Orleans Saints)
- George Seifert (Carolina Panthers)
- Bill Parcells (New England Patriots, New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys)
- Jimmy Johnson (Miami Dolphins)
- Dick Vermeil (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Mike Holmgren (Seattle Seahawks)
- Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins)
Lombardi died of cancer. Parcells and Holgren made it back to the Super Bowl but lost. It raises the concern that a coach tends to lose the edge a bit after his successful run with the previous team. Nonetheless there are reasons to think Payton will be Pace's priority if he becomes available in January.
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