The Chicago Bears feel they have built a solid roster to compete in 2024. As with any NFL team, good play from the quarterback is necessary to make that happen. Please make no mistake: the Bears don't expect Caleb Williams to carry the entire team on his shoulders. That is neither fair nor realistic. What they want from the #1 overall pick is efficiency. Don't feel a need to press. Take what the defense gives you, make smart decisions, limit turnovers, and try to produce a couple of big plays every week.
Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated decided to investigate every 1st round quarterback ahead of the regular season. He assessed their talent, supporting casts, and coaching situations to develop a stat projection for each. Jayden Daniels has a decent start in Washington with over 3200 yards and 18 TDs to 10 INTs. Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy won't start until later in the year. Michael Penix Jr. won't play at all. None of them are expected to post significant numbers.
Williams, on the other hand? Well, his certainly pops out.
1. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (No. 1 pick)
Projection: 65% completion rate, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 3,727 yards
Why: Waldron is a gifted offensive coordinator who, alongside Panthers head coach Dave Canales, led an offensive renaissance in Seattle that segmented quarterback Geno Smith’s strengths and built a playbook around his favorite throws and his strong suits. Despite Pete Carroll’s penchant for an incredibly balanced run/pass ratio, the Seahawks entrusted Waldron to unleash the team’s core of wide receivers. By Smith’s last year with Waldron, the Seahawks’ run-pass ratio was skewed beyond that of Russell Wilson during his final year with Carroll.
The baseline comp I used for this was Jared Goff’s sophomore season. These numbers are mostly in line with Goff’s first season with Sean McVay.
If Caleb Williams does that, it would be historic.
Maybe not in broader NFL terms, but easily in Bears terms. Here is a reminder. Erik Kramer holds the franchise record for single-season passing with 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns. Orr believes Williams will threaten both marks as a rookie. Better still, a Bears QB has cracked 3700 yards passing twice in franchise history. Kramer in 1995 and Jay Cutler in 2014. Williams would be the third. It would also be only the fifth time someone would've thrown at least 26 touchdowns. Orr might think these numbers are decent, but in the context of this organization, they would be eye-popping.
Buzz is already building at Halas Hall. Caleb Williams already looks like he belongs. He seems to handle it fine where quarterbacks would usually struggle against the Bears defense. The offense is holding its own in drills, executing quality drives, and limiting their mistakes. High-level execution isn't there yet. Still, for Williams to make strong throws in the face of the starting defense every day is encouraging. Maybe Orr isn't too crazy to think those numbers are attainable.
