The
Chicago Bears are at a crossroads in franchise history. For the first time in years it feels like the roster is headed in the right direction. However, there still hasn't been that defining moment. An acquisition that could become the foundation of their future success or deathblow to everything they've tried to build.
It certainly looks like this moment is almost at hand with the 2017 off-season approaching. Not only will the Bears have a healthy amount of salary cap space, but also the #3 overall pick in the draft. It's the highest they've drafted in 45 years. Last time did not go very well for them. So how can they avoid missing again, all the while giving themselves the best chance to make a future run at a championship?
Perhaps a way to figure that out is by doing an overview of the history surrounding top five draft picks. Figuring out where most of the individual and team success comes from may point the finger at where the Bears will be directing their attention come this April.
GM Ryan Pace made it perfectly clear he knows the magnitude of what's at stake. Top five draft picks are extremely valuable commodities that can't be wasted. If used right, it can become the foundation for a decade of success. The last time the Bears had one in 2005, they used it on Cedric Benson. After making the Super Bowl the next year, they began a slow, steady decline to what they are now.
So it's time to ask the big question. Where should the Bears apply this critical resource? A good way to answer that is by examining the success of each position group. First, here is a list of the gross total of top five picks spent at each one dating back to the league merger in 1970.
Top 5 Picks Spent By Position since 1970 Merger
- QB: 46
- RB: 34
- WR: 20
- OL: 32
- DL: 57
- LB: 27
- DB: 18
There is nothing inherently surprising here. Quarterbacks and lineman are typically viewed as the most valuable commodities on a football field. The fact they collectively dominated the top five picks over that course of time should be expected. As for the running backs number, keep in mind that through most of the 1970s and '80s, the NFL was still considered a run-to-win league. Not until rule changes opened up the passing game did a shift begin to take place.
Now here is the stat line for pick hit rate. In other words how many of those top five guys by position managed to reach at least one Pro Bowl.
Top 5 Pick Position That Reached Pro Bowl since 1970 Merger
- QB: 27 (.586)
- RB: 21 (.617)
- WR: 13 (.650)
- OL: 17 (.531)
- DL: 27 (.473)
- LB: 13 (.481)
- DB: 12 (.666)
Another surprise here is how successful teams have been at finding quality defensive backs that high. A full two thirds of the corners or safeties selected in the top five have reached at least one Pro Bowl. A good sign for a 2017 draft class that appears loaded at both positions. At the same time the offensive and defensive line miss rate is concerning given how many picks are poured into those positions.
That's all fine and good, but at the end of the day all people want to know is one thing. Will this guy help the team win a championship? Here is the Super Bowl success for each position group.
Super Bowl Victories By Top 5 Pick Position Since 1970 Merger
- QB: 16
- RB: 4
- WR: 2
- OL: 2
- DL: 9
- LB: 7
- DB: 4
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This shouldn't be a shock considering the fact that 26 of the past 50 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. People talk about needing a great offensive line, or a great pass rush. Yet when people talk about the great offensive lines in NFL history, almost invariably the ones who claimed Super Bowl success had a great quarterback behind them. It should also be noted the two greatest pass rushes of all-time, the 1984 Bears and 1989 Vikings, didn't win the championship.
There is just no getting around it. Teams can't win championships without a quarterback, and the best opportunity to get one is in the top five picks of the NFL draft. Sure there is always the chance that a few great ones will slip to later rounds, but here's a final statistic to note.
Since the 1970 merger,
13 quarterbacks selected outside of the top five have won
21 combined Super Bowls. That's out of
634 total quarterbacks selected. Not exactly the best odds if one wishes to "get a guy" later on.
The Chicago Bears draft strategy is pretty clear on this point. If there is a quarterback who is worth taking at all with the #3 selection, that is the direction they must go.
