One fundamental rule of the NFL? If one cannot change, one dies. Adaptation and a willingness to admit when something isn't working is a cornerstone of those who have long-term success in this league. It's true of players, coaches, and executives alike. In the case of GM Ryan Pace, his evolution has quietly been ongoing. Specifically in regards to how he's conducted drafts for the Chicago Bears.
Most people probably didn't notice the subtle shift that happened not to long ago. See the draft tends to come with two fundamental schools of thought. Those who prioritize overall talent and physical upside and those who value experience and productivity. During the first part of his tenure as GM, Pace was squarely in the former camp. He loved targeting freak athletes. Guys who could end up being the best in the game if they realized their full potential.
After three years though, he started to adjust approach. Suddenly the Bears were more focused on proven players. Ones who showed their capability over stretches of at least two years in college. By the look of things, this could have a profound impact on how the upcoming 2020 draft could play out.
Ryan Pace is still aggressive but starting to play it safe
2015 to 2017: Bears prioritize physical upside vs. production
Pace's first-ever pick is a glowing example of a scout's approach. Scouts are groomed by NFL teams to search for the most talented athletes possible. This is how they're able to find potential hidden gems every year in later rounds and undrafted free agency. The problem is scouts tend to fall too much in love with the upside of a player and lose focus on what they accomplished.
Kevin White was basically a no-name at West Virginia until 2014 when he exploded for over 1,400 yards receiving. Then he ran a blistering 4.35 in the 40-yard dash at the scouting combine. That was pretty much it. Pace was sold. The Bears drafted him 7th overall. White had 285 yards receiving total in four seasons with the team.
Next year in 2016, the trend continued. Pace traded up from #11 overall to #9 to secure Georgia outside linebacker Leonard Floyd. Despite never having more than 6.5 sack in any of his three seasons as a starter, the Bears felt his unique athleticism and length would eventually transform into an elite pass rusher. Through four seasons, Floyd has 18.5 sacks.
Last but certainly not least is Mitch Trubisky. Mr. Ohio Football out of high school, he spent two years on the bench at North Carolina before getting the starting job in 2016. He had a good year, throwing 30 touchdowns to just six interceptions. Despite just 13 games of starting experience he chose to declare for the draft. Pace, enamored with his potential, traded up from #3 overall to #2, bypassing more experienced and productive options in Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes to take him.
Chicago has been a laughing stock for this decision ever since.
2018 to 2019: Productive players start to take over
It felt like the Bears altered their strategy at the start of 2018. By picking Roquan Smith out of Georgia 8th overall, it was their first truly proven player they'd drafted in the 1st round. Smith had dominated for two years with the Bulldogs, helping them reach the national title game in 2017. In two years since being drafted, he's topped 100 tackles both times with seven sacks and two interceptions.
A year later, the trend continued. Chicago traded up in the 3rd round to take Iowa State running back David Montgomery. Across three seasons he finished just shy of 3,000 yards rushing with 26 touchdowns. Unquestionably the workhorse of that offense. Despite poor blocking most of the season as a rookie, Montgomery still finished with 1,074 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. Not bad for a player drafted where he was.
This proves that Pace might've learned a valuable lesson.
Athleticism and physical talent are important. This is undeniable. The most talented teams win. Yet players who have the talent but not the production in college to back it up should always be a red flag. It means they either don't want or don't know how to get the most out of their gifts. Balance is vital in drafting. No strategy is perfect but disregarding production in favor of raw athletic skill rarely works out for teams in the long run.
If Pace applies his new strategy again this year, the Bears should come away with some good players in April.
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