A recent update from ESPN projections gives the Chicago Bears a 96% chance of landing the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. All they need is for the Carolina Panthers to lose one of their remaining two games and that pretty much locks it up. There is one problem. The Panthers have been far less horrible in recent weeks. They claimed a narrow 9-7 victory over Atlanta and then almost upset the Green Bay Packers before falling 33-30. While nobody would confuse them for suddenly being a good team, they have proven far more pesky of late.
What makes it worse from the Bears' perspective is recent events have left the door open for Carolina to win their last two games. The biggest news comes out of Jacksonville, where Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will miss Sunday's game against the Panthers with a sprained right shoulder. That means backup C.J. Beathard will get the start. This is far from ideal considering Jacksonville's offense has really struggled the past few weeks, scoring only 19 points combined against Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
All this while their defense has allowed at least 30 points in three of their last four games.
The Chicago Bears' concerns don't end there.
After the Jaguars, Carolina finishes the season at home against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers narrowly beat the Panthers last time 21-18. What makes this rematch far more concerning is that Tampa may have nothing to play for. They will claim the NFC South championship if they defeat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. With no shot at the #1 seed, they will have nothing to play for in the season finale. It wouldn't be a surprise if they chose to rest several key players in preparation for the playoffs.
So rather than facing two playoff contenders at their best, Carolina might be getting them at their worst or least interested. Two wins would enable the Arizona Cardinals, who sit one game back in the standings, to leapfrog them for the #1 overall pick. There is also Washington, who could pull within a tie and have a weaker strength of schedule. The Chicago Bears have to hope that the Panthers don't have enough cohesion to muster a winning streak. Jacksonville is way more desperate and still more talented. Beathard is a veteran, and Doug Pederson is a good coach.
Still, Sunday might be a nerve-racking one for Bears fans.
