The Numbers Don't Support Bears' Reasons to Hold Back Trubisky

Far and above any Chicago Bears topic for the past four months has been the quarterbacks. More specifically who should start. This hasn't been something fans have debated for nine years when the Jay Cutler era began. Aside from a brief flirtation with Josh McCown in 2013, there was no debate about who the starter should be. That has since changed with the arrivals of Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky. It's not like people didn't see this coming, including the Bears. The moment they drafted Trubisky after signing Glennon to his big contract, the seeds of a controversy were planted. GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox have done everything in their power to dissuade people from the idea that Trubisky can play soon than expected though. They have a plan in place and are sticking with it. Glennon is the veteran. They believe in him. He will start. Trubisky will sit until he's ready.

Is the Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky situation backed up by history?

Sure it sounds logical on paper. Why throw the rookie onto the field too soon. You could damage his psyche forever. This is not some new form of thinking. Nearly every expert around the league supports the idea. What's the rush? Bring the kid along slowly and led Glennon manage the offense until then. Thing is though the numbers don't seem to support this line of thinking. I decided to do some research. First I pinpointed every quarterback who has gone in the top five pick range from 1980 to 2015. This would ensure that even the most recent had been in the league for at least two season. The goal was simple:  separate the names into two categories. One would be QBs who started right away (as in opening day). The other would be QBs who waited a certain period of time, be it a couple weeks or even a year before getting on the field. Then I measured how well the two sides did to see if holding rookies out really had any sort of positive effect.

Players who started opening day as rookies

• John Elway (9 Pro Bowls, 2 rings, HOF)
• Troy Aikman (6 Pro Bowls, 3 rings, HOF)
• Jeff George
• Drew Bledsoe (3 Pro Bowls, 1 ring)
• Rick Mirer
• Peyton Manning (14 Pro Bowls, 2 rings, HOF)
• Ryan Leaf
• David Carr
• Matt Ryan (4 Pro Bowls)
• Mark Sanchez
• Matthew Stafford (1 Pro Bowl)
• Sam Bradford
• Cam Newton (3 Pro Bowls)
• Andrew Luck (3 Pro Bowls)
• Robert Griffin III (1 Pro Bowl)
• Marcus Mariota
• Jameis Winston (1 Pro Bowl)

Players who sat at least their first week of NFL action

• Jim McMahon (1 Pro Bowl, 1 ring)
• Art Schlichter
• Jim Everett (1 Pro Bowl)
• Vinny Testaverde (2 Pro Bowls)
• Heath Schuler
• Kerry Collins (2 Pro Bowls)
• Steve McNair (3 Pro Bowls)
• Akili Smith
• Donovan McNabb (6 Pro Bowls)
• Tim Couch
• Michael Vick (4 Pro Bowls)
• Joey Harrington
• Carson Palmer (3 Pro Bowls)
• Philip Rivers (6 Pro Bowls)
• Eli Manning (4 Pro Bowls, 2 rings)
• Alex Smith (2 Pro Bowls)
• Vince Young (2 Pro Bowls)
• JaMarcus Russell
• Blake Bortles

Looking back over the lists, if we're being honest, one could argue that waiting to start a quarterback could be a bit more damaging to their careers. Not one who has done so since 1980 has reached the Hall of Fame though McNabb, Rivers and Manning have at least a chance. Meanwhile the group who started right away has two in already with another who is a slam dunk. [video width="1920" height="1080" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Peyton-Manning-A-Career-Retrospective-NFL.mp4"][/video] In total the immediate start group had eight rings and 45 total Pro Bowl appearances. The sit-and-learn group. They came away with three rings and 35 appearances. That is what the gross numbers indicate, like it or not. However it's probably best not to delve too deep into that. Fights have been started over less. Maybe just focus on the over implication.

There is little difference between now and later

At the end of the day there is no magical formula or plan for producing a top NFL quarterback. Starting right away has produced some great names and some terrible ones. Waiting awhile has produced some great names and some terrible ones. There is only so much preparation and study can do for a player. His biggest lessons will come on the field. That's the inescapable reality. Some will rise, some will fall. It comes down to this simple question. Is there a chance the team makes the playoffs if the rookie sits? If the answer is no, then keeping him on the bench is entirely pointless.