Every season of the NFL is different. A quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs one year would make the playoffs and then not the next. This is because it's a team sport and the entire team needs to do their part. The Chicago Bears had a top 5 defense again in 2019 but this time missed the postseason because the QB position was awful. Now Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky are ready to do battle in hopes a competition can fix it.
Adam Jahns of The Athletic asked an interesting question in his recent article. If the defense remains as good or better in 2020, what level of quarterback production will be needed in order to reach the playoffs? He did some calculations covering the previous three seasons and reached the conclusion that the QB play doesn't have to be great. It just can't be terrible.
He explained what that means.
"The Bears still require better quarterback play in 2020. Everyone knows that. It’s why Foles is here and Trubisky is under fire in a contract year. Scoring differential shows the importance of balance. Quarterbacks also are the most impactful position when it comes to turnover ratio.
But Foles and/or Trubisky don’t need to be a top-10 quarterback in terms of passer rating or total QBR. There are examples that a defense can carry average QB play into the postseason. A top-15 mark in terms of passer rating or QBR — or even a top-20 mark — might be enough if the defense remains one of the league’s best."
Nick Foles or Trubisky do indeed have a benchmark to clear
So what exactly does a top 15 or top 20 season entail in terms of stats? To answer that question, I review the passing seasons of every primary starter from 2019. Then I covered the names who finished between 15th and 20th in the rankings for overall passer rating. Any QBs in that mix who didn't start at least 15 games were removed for clarity sake. Then their seasons were averaged out to provide a picture of the line Foles or Trubisky must hit to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs with this defense.
- 62.5 completion percentage
- 3,871 yards
- 22 touchdowns
- 11 interceptions
This is quite similar to the season Jay Cutler had in 2015. Yet that team went 6-10 because the defense was a distant 20th in points allowed. If he'd done that with the 2019 version? Odds are the Bears would've won those crucial two extra games to reach January. This isn't a high hurdle to clear in today's NFL. Yet no team makes it look more daunting than this one.
Whether it's Foles or Trubisky doesn't matter. Even if they combine for starts, that is the line to hit. If the Bears defense plays up to expectations, this team should be back in the playoffs.
