When evaluating the 2022 draft class, opinions vary far more wildly than usual. People aren't sure who the stars are going to be. It's not a bad group in terms of talent. It is just one lacking in star power. One thing is evident though. In terms of overall depth, no position appears stronger than the pass rushers. Purdue standout George Karlaftis is one example of how good the group has a chance to be.
Cynthia Frelund is an analytics specialist for NFL Network. She
conducted math-based evaluations of every top edge rusher in the 2022 class to determine what current pro they compare to and what team they best fit. Karlaftis proved to be a fascinating projection. His pro comparison is an exciting one by itself, but his team fit is even better. Or at least it is for
Chicago Bears fans.
"PRO COMPARISON: Ryan Kerrigan, free agent
Trey Hendrickson also pops up as a comp, so that's another favorable note. According to Computer Vision, the Purdue product had the best fatigue measurement -- meaning his speed and force stayed the strongest through the fourth quarter -- among all edge defenders in this draft class last season.
TEAM FIT: Chicago Bears
OK, I had to suspend disbelief a bit here, as the Bears don't select until the second round, where they hold Pick Nos. 39 and 48. My model has Karlaftis still being around at No. 39 just six percent of the time. Maybe the Bears can package picks and move up? Chicago is where Karlaftis' win share is maximized, especially given new head coach Matt Eberflus' track record."
It isn't hard to see the appeal.
As of today, Karlaftis is widely considered a 1st round prospect. The Draft Network has him ranked 27th overall, and NFL.com has him ranked 21st. So it doesn't seem like the odds favor him slipping to 39th overall. Hence why Frelund suggested the Bears would have to move up for him. Then again, it isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility. While Karlaftis does have great tape, certain aspects about him might convince 1st round teams to pass.
For one, he's a bit of a tweener. He sits around 266 lbs, which is more 4-3 defensive end territory but also has 32.5-inch arms. That is considered too short for said position. So he's not agile enough for 3-4 outside linebacker but is also not long enough for 4-3 end. There are also questions about him being too one-dimensional, given his porous run defense for most of his time at Purdue. It wouldn't be the first time good pass rushers fell for superficial reasons.
George Karlaftis could get the Trey Hendrickson treatment.
The star New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals defensive end fell to the 3rd round back in 2017. Despite 22 sacks and 30 tackles for a loss over his final two seasons at Florida Atlantic. His dimensions are almost identical to Karlaftis (6'4, 266 lbs, and 32-inch arms), and he was significantly more productive. If he can fall, then so can the Purdue star. This is why what Frelund projects is far from crazy.
It comes down to opportunity. Chicago added Al-Quadin Muhammad to the defensive end mix in the past few weeks, but he isn't enough to overcome the loss of Khalil Mack. One shouldn't forget Robert Quinn is 32 and likely playing his final season with the Bears due to his hefty contract. So draft George Karlaftis shouldn't be seen as unnecessary. Far from it. He'd have a chance to form the bedrock of their future defensive line.
Will it happen? Unlikely. Could it happen? Yes.
GM Ryan Poles should be prepared for the possibility. If Karlaftis slips to 39th overall, he should not think twice on pulling the trigger. Short arms or not, the guy has proven he understands how to harass the quarterback. He has the exact sort of motor Matt Eberflus demands from his defensive linemen too. It is as Frelund says. A perfect fit.
