Todd McShay Reveals Who Bears Likely Trade The #1 Pick To

Mel Kiper Jr. wasn't prepared to put a trade for the #1 pick in his first mock draft. He feels it's too early in the process and wasn't able to build a consensus from his NFL sources on what the Chicago Bears or other teams might do. That is fair. The Senior Bowl and scouting combine have yet to begin. There is also the first week of free agency to consider. That is when the top quarterbacks usually land somewhere. Once those hurdles are cleared, it will offer a clear picture of what could happen. Kiper's colleague Todd McShay had no such doubts.

The two appeared on ESPN First Draft with Field Yates to discuss Kiper's mock draft. McShay believes the odds are favorable that Chicago will trade the pick. This belief doesn't come from random self-assurance. He has specific reasons for feeling so confident. In fact, he went so far as to state with certainty the Houston Texans will likely be the team that moves up.

"I don't think they're going to sit at #2. I think they're going to do everything they can, and I think the Colts are going to be the driving reason. The Colts, they are done dealing with veteran quarterbacks who come in and just don't fit the bill. They have a great roster. They do. A great roster on both sides of the ball. They have a run game. They have a solid defense. They need to get that quarterback. So why wouldn't you pick from #4 to #1? Move up. Whatever it takes. Next year's two. Next year's one. Go get that guy. My point is that #1 pick is going to be worth a lot."

This is a scenario many have pointed out.

It'd be one thing if the Texans and Colts were two regular teams from different conferences that needed quarterbacks. The fact they're division rivals changes the dynamic. Everybody knows Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay has been frustrated by the quarterback problems since Andrew Luck retired. He is tired of the veteran route. No doubt he will push GM Chris Ballard to get a young guy. That is why Houston has every reason to be fearful of getting jumped.

Todd McShay is correct in his assessment.

Much of this depends on what the Texans and Colts do over the next two months. If either decides to sign or trade for a quarterback, that kills the entire scenario. If both make it through to late March without any significant addition, that will set the stage for a possible bidding war for #1. The Bears will need an assist from the top quarterbacks in this class. One or two of them must impress the front offices of those two organizations. One cannot underestimate the value of a GM falling in love with a particular guy. Ryan Pace proved that in 2017 with Mitch Trubisky.

Then there is the ammunition. Houston has two 1st round picks this year and next year. They are loaded with more than enough assets to swap spots with Chicago without having to mortgage their future. Then Poles would have a nice choice. Either he can take the best player on his board knowing he got a few extra picks, or he can possibly trade down again with another team to keep stockpiling. Todd McShay isn't the only one who sees the possibilities. If Poles is any good at this, it would be a shock if he doesn't come out with several extra picks when the dust settles.