The Chicago Bears are 9-4. They have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs for the first time in five years. Many are thinking about how good this team's odds are of making a run at the Super Bowl, should that happen. They seem to have a proven recipe. They are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and lead the league in takeaways. History says you can win with that approach, provided your quarterback isn't a complete liability. Caleb Williams has proven he is certainly not that. In such cases, it might be wise to get the opinion of the greatest winner in NFL history: Tom Brady.
The future Hall of Famer won seven Super Bowls in his NFL career and could've won ten. He understands the reality of winning in the playoffs better than everybody. Based on what he knows and what he's seen from the Bears, their chances of making a run aren't great. At least not yet. That is because Williams, for all of his athletic brilliance and maturation as a leader, isn't accurate enough as a passer.
Defenses in the playoffs have a long history of exposing this weakness in every quarterback.
"I always care about accuracy from a quarterback standpoint because when you get to bigger games in the playoffs, and the defenses are better and the margin (for) error is less, you have to be an incredibly accurate passer.
I think there's a lot of ways to get the job done at quarterback. You see a lot of guys in the NFL, different skill sets. I do believe it's a passing league. It always has been. It always will be. You can benefit from a great running game, but when the rubber meets the road and you're in big time moments and you're in games where it's very contested, you're going against a team that's at the similar pedigree, you better be an elite passer, and elite processor, you better have great intangibles and resilience built up in you to be the leader of that team and when I watch different guys play, I see Patrick Mahomes has that, Josh Allen has that, Jared Goff has that, Matthew Stafford has that, Lamar Jackson has that. There's a lot of guys that I love their style of play, the inaccurate guys they have to work really hard at their craft to be better."
Hard data backs up Tom Brady.
Right now, Williams' completion percentage is 57.7%. Not all of that is from inaccurate passes, but it is clear he isn't connecting nearly enough. The league average is around 64%. History says that won't cut it in the playoffs. Here is the completion percentage of the last ten Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks.
- Jalen Hurts - 71.4%
- Patrick Mahomes - 66.3%
- Patrick Mahomes - 69.8%
- Matthew Stafford - 70.0%
- Tom Brady - 58.7%
- Patrick Mahomes - 64.3%
- Tom Brady - 68.0%
- Nick Foles - 72.6%
- Tom Brady - 65.5%
- Peyton Manning - 55.4%
There were only two instances where the quarterback who won the title had a completion percentage below 64%. Both times, they were largely carried by elite defenses. Brady in 2018 and Manning in 2015. What the legendary quarterback said holds true. You need to be accurate in the playoffs.
If you're wondering why head coach Ben Johnson set 70% as a goal for Williams' completion percentage, now you know. It is often the bar you must reach to ensure a legitimate chance to win a championship. As things stand, Williams isn't there. It doesn't look like he'll get there this year. While the Bears may reach the postseason, their hopes of going anywhere will likely have to wait until that changes.
