The Chicago Bears have had amazing turnarounds before. Their most famous was probably 2001, when they went from 5-11 the year before to 13-3. There was also 2005, going from 5-11 to 11-5. Finally, there was 2018, when they turned a 6-10 record into 12-4 and won the division. So what's happening now in 2025 isn't unprecedented for the Bears franchise. They were 5-12 last year and have now reached 9-3. However, the way they reached this point is anything but ordinary.
Mike Sando of The Athletic ran the numbers and reached a stunning conclusion. The Bears should not be here. That they are is a wholly rare occurrence in NFL history.
All signs point to the Bears' record being better than the team itself. Chicago's point differential (+6) is third-worst among 376 teams with nine victories in their first 12 games, per Pro Football Reference. The Bears are tied for third in the NFL win rate (.750) but only 16th in average point margin. Luck plays some role in the Bears going 4-1 in games decided by three or fewer points (their record was 1-5 in such games last season).
Put simply, most teams in this situation would have a losing record. The Bears have managed to overcome that bad point differential with uncommon resilience. They have five 4th quarter comebacks this season. Their ability to pull games out late is the story of the year. It is also why people have been reluctant to buy into them.
The Chicago Bears are ahead of schedule.
Usually, when a new coaching staff takes over, it takes at least a year for them to get acclimated before success starts happening. Mike Ditka went 3-6 in his first year. Lovie Smith went 5-11. Both needed to bring in players who fit their vision. Ben Johnson has managed to take the players he already has and maximize them. Most of the names on this roster weren't signed or drafted when he took over. Even so, you're seeing career years from several guys like D'Andre Swift, Darnell Wright, Kevin Byard, and Tremaine Edmunds.
Meanwhile, rookies like Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, Ozzy Trapilo, and Kyle Monangai are making big contributions. That is why it feels like the Chicago Bears are ahead of schedule. This kind of surge would've been expected next year, but it's happening now. While the Super Bowl doesn't feel realistic just yet, thoughts of it are no longer a dream.
