Many people are unhappy about the Chicago Bears' decision to play their starters this Sunday against the Detroit Lions. In their eyes, chasing the #2 seed when they're guaranteed the #3 seed anyway isn't logical. It would be much more valuable to give your best players a week of rest, healing up nagging injuries, before embarking on a grueling playoff campaign. Yet Ben Johnson stated with zero room for debate that the Bears would be playing the starters and going for the win at Soldier Field.
There are some selfish reasons for this. Caleb Williams is 109 yards away from setting the single-season franchise record for passing yards and 270 away from 4,000. Chicago also would love some proper revenge on the Lions for that 52-21 humiliation back in September at Ford Field. However, the real reasons for chasing the win boil down to simple math. Remember, Johnson graduated college with degrees in mathematics and computer science. He's a big believer in numbers, and two of them show why he is correct in his decision.
Adam Hoge and Adam Jahns of CHGO laid them out.
That’s particularly true in the wild-card round. Over the past four seasons, home teams are 19-5 in the playoffs, including 5-1 last season. The Bears are 6-1 at home this season with their final game remaining against the Lions.
It also helps that Williams is better at Soldier Field. He has a 99.1 passer rating at home – which includes 13 touchdowns against one interception – compared to 84.1 on the road.
Ben Johnson also has history on his side.
In the Super Bowl era, the Bears have played 24 playoff games. They are 8-8 at home. That may not sound good until you realize they're 2-6 on the road. Both Super Bowl runs they made came with homefield advantage in the playoffs. Johnson isn't naive. Winning on the road is difficult in any circumstance. Winning on the road in the playoffs is doubly difficult. The Williams numbers speak for themselves. He has 13 touchdowns and one interception in seven home games this season.
Yes, injuries are a risk. That is the NFL. It's a violent sport. Yet, downplaying the value of a second guaranteed home game in the playoffs is anathema to Ben Johnson. The playoffs are a place where the margins for error are razor-thin. You are doing yourself an enormous disservice by not trying to seize every possible advantage you can get. The numbers don't lie. Going after an extra home game while maybe giving your quarterback an extra jolt of confidence can pay huge dividends down the line.
