Chicago Bears fans have never been wild about change, even when something isn't that good anymore. It was true of Brian Urlacher. It was true of Devin Hester. Now it's true of Jay Cutler as well. Coming off an injury-filled season where he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, the 33-year old quarterback stares down the barrel of a failed eight-year run with the franchise. A run that began with so much promise.
Some don't want to see him go, still holding out hope he can win them games if only given enough help. Meanwhile others are clamoring for somebody new. A young gun who can trot that old horse to the stable. The popular name of late is Jimmy Garoppolo, a 25-year old native of Illinois who has spent three years learning from Tom Brady.
Experts are split on him, but a majority tend to think he'd make quite the solid addition to the Bears roster. The better question is would he be an upgrade over Cutler? Somebody decided to take on that very challenge, and came away with interesting results.
Kenny White is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker who now writes for SportsLine.com. Crunching numbers is something he knows well. So it was quite revealing to see what he had to say regarding how the Bears might look with Cutler at quarterback versus what they could be getting were they to make a deal for Garoppolo.
In a word? Not as much as they think.
"Before the 2016 season started, former Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White had Cutler four points better than Garoppolo. Heading into last season, Cutler was coming off his best season as a pro and Garoppolo had thrown just 31 passes in the NFL. Now, Cutler is 33 years old and regressing, while Garoppolo gained extra experience with two solid starts. Cutler, from Vanderbilt, appeared in five games this season, tossing four touchdowns against five interceptions. To start the 2017 season, White would have Garoppolo one point better than Cutler, or a 4 percent better chance of winning a game. That 4 percent chance equates to between 0.5 wins and 1 win over the course of a season. Instead of 3-13 with a QB carousel, the Bears most likely would have finished 4-12 with Garoppolo. White would set the Bears' win total at 4 with Cutler and 4.5 with Garoppolo, who played his college ball at nearby Eastern Illinois. According to SportsLine's computer models, the Bears would win 6.5 games with Garoppolo under center compared to 5.3 with Cutler and have an 11 percent shot at making the playoffs."They say every game in an NFL season matters. That's true to an extent, but even so isn't the goal of the Bears to get somebody under center who can do more than manage not to lose games? A popular saying is that half the teams in the league have a quarterback and half the teams don't. It always seems like the Bears fall into the latter category. Cutler was their latest bold attempt to change that. They came close, but it didn't work out. A mixture of mismanagement and misfortune got in the way. If Garoppolo were really one of those guys that could carry a team on his shoulders, wouldn't somebody have drafted him earlier in 2014? The point is the Bears might be making the same exact mistake they made with Cutler. A common theme in this league is really good players don't typically get traded. Denver got along just fine without Jay. New England rarely makes trades they regret later. Perhaps it's time for the Bears to think about different avenues to solving this quarterback dilemma than taking in the pricey castoffs from other franchises that are better than them.
