All people talk about with draft picks is what their ceiling could be if everything goes as hoped. It is no different with Caleb Williams as he prepares to become the Chicago Bears' #1 pick next week. Most experts have bounced between two names when discussing Williams' potential. Many see another Patrick Mahomes. Others see Aaron Rodgers. Bears fans would take either one of those. However, a more measured discussion should center around what Williams' floor is. How good will he be even if everything doesn't work out as hoped?
Ryen Russillo of The Ringer discussed this topic with former ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay. Russillo wonders if Russell Wilson is the player who should be considered the median between success and disappointment for a prospect of Williams' caliber.
Wilson is a divisive topic these days. Most people believe he's past his prime, with two disappointing years in 2022 and 2023. However, there was a period of time between 2015 and 2020 when Wilson routinely cracked 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns passing. Before that, he was a highly efficient game manager for one of the league's best teams, winning a Super Bowl in 2013 and coming yards away from another the next year. If the Bears got that from Williams, he'd be the unquestioned best quarterback in franchise history.
Caleb Williams goes into a unique situation.
Unlike other organizations, there is no looming shadow of past great quarterbacks he must live up to. The ghost of Sid Luckman is long gone. Nobody fears being compared to Jim McMahon or Jay Cutler. That said, Chicago has been haunted by quarterback misery for decades. Fans have grown overly pessimistic about their chances of ever seeing a good one. Cade McNown flopped. Rex Grossman flopped. Mitch Trubisky flopped. Justin Fields flopped. It's given them a complex that this organization will never be able to develop a quarterback.
Still, optimism is high around the NFL that Caleb Williams will be different. He has a special blend of skills you don't see every day. His arm strength and accuracy are top-notch. His mobility and improvisational awareness are elite. Even his mechanics as a passer are highly regarded. Teammates love him. Coaches love him. His work ethic and competitive nature are notorious. All the Bears have to do is put a competent system in place and surround him with capable weapons. For once, they appear to have accomplished both.
This could finally be it.
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