A Chicago Bears trade in the NFL draft has become an annual tradition these days. GM Ryan Pace has shown himself to be a man who doesn't fear moving around the board when he feels it suits the best interests of his football team. The question is will he be willing to do the same this year?
Unlike normal drafts, the Bears only have five picks in 2019 and none of them come in the first two rounds. One would think if Pace is considering any moves, it would be down in order to acquire an extra pick or two. However, there are plenty out there who think he might be more aggressive. Even so much as to try for a huge jump into the 1st round.
Given Pace's aggressive nature in the past (trading up for Leonard Floyd, Mitch Trubisky, and Anthony Miller) it's actually not something that sounds impossible to think about. So here's a better question. What would it cost to make happen?
Chicago Bears trade into 1st would likely cost both 2nds next year
Most people still use the old draft value chart pioneered by former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson. However, a lot of things have changed since his day. Two of the biggest being the new rookie wage scale courtesy of the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement and also the decision to make compensatory picks available for trade.
That chart doesn't factor in these new realities. Rich Hill of SB Nation decided to update a new chart with them in mind and that is what we'll be using here. According to him, the 32nd pick in the 1st round is worth 184.30 points. The Bears' 87th pick in the 3rd round is worth 48.01.
This means they have to come up with a package that equals 136.29 points of value to reach a fair deal. Right now the most valuable draft capital the Bears have is their two 2nd round choices in 2020. According to the chart, the two picks at the end of that round (#63 and #64) are worth a combined 161.5 points.
That would be enough to not only get them as high at #32, but even #28 which is worth 209.11 points. Keep in mind the Bears and Raider (whose 2nd rounder they hold) would have to meet in the Super Bowl for those picks to become #63 and #64. Those odds are astronomically long. Thus one if not both will be worth more by next year.
So based on the math, this course is their best shot.
The odds of Pace doing that though? Remote. If he were to sacrifice both of those 2nd rounders next year, the Bears would not have a pick until the 4th round in 2020. He'd be creating an even bigger gap from the 1st round than he has this year.
That means he either won't make the trade or might have to get creative with the package. Perhaps using just one 2nd rounder and then including a player in the package. Who might that player be? It would have to be someone considered worth a 2nd round pick.
Among the names who might fit?
- Charles Leno
- Cody Whitehair
- Allen Robinson
- Tarik Cohen
- Eddie Goldman
- Roquan Smith
- Kyle Fuller
- Eddie Jackson
Would you be willing to part with any of those names to go get a prospect in the bottom of the 1st round? Chances are that's unlikely. Thus the Bears are left with only one option.
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