What NFL History Tells The Chicago Bears About Trading Down From #9 Pick

The Chicago Bears have four options on the table for the #9 pick later this month. They're taking a quarterback at #1. That much is obvious. Most believe it's down to a wide receiver, pass rusher, offensive tackle, or a trade down with the other. GM Ryan Poles only has four picks left in this draft after multiple trades landed them Montez Sweat, Ryan Bates, and Keenan Allen. It isn't hard to imagine he'd entertain the idea of moving down from #9. The obvious question is what he could get if that happens.

I did some digging on the history of such moves happening at that spot. Surprisingly, it's been rare over the past 30 years. Only three times has a team moved down instead of up from that spot. Here are the results from each such instance.

• 1996: Oilers trade #9 to Raiders for #17, a 2nd round pick, and 4th round pick
• 2016: Buccaneers trade #9 to Bears for #11 and 4th round pick
• 2023: Bears trade #9 to Eagles for #10 and future 4th round pick

The results of those trades were as follows. Houston traded up from #17 to #14 to select running back Eddie George. The 2nd round pick became guard Jason Lyman and the 4th round pick became future Pro Bowl tackle Jon Runyan, though his success came in Philadelphia. Tampa Bay selected cornerback Vernon Hargreaves withe the 11th pick and used the 4th to move up in the 2nd round for kicker Roberto Aguayo. Chicago dropped one spot before grabbing Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright. The 4th rounder has not yet been utilized.

The Chicago Bears' trade return depends on how far they drop.

Based on history, they could secure a 2nd round pick if they're willing to fall into the bottom half of the teens. Remember, they don't have a 2nd due to the Sweat trade. Poles may wish to get that back. The difficult part is determining if there will be any players available in that range the Bears would be happy with. Experts believe there are around 15-16 true 1st round talents in this class. So dropping to between 17th and 20th would be risky. Poles may wish to keep the drop shorter, which means a smaller return.

All things being equal, his goal might be to drop far enough to get another 3rd rounder. That would give the Chicago Bears more flexibility on Day 2 of the draft, maybe to move up for somebody they love in the 2nd round or trade down from one of them to stockpile some early Day 3 picks. Poles has said he loves the spot the Bears are in. There is a high probability there will be some blue-chip players available at #9. He may decide this draft will be more about quality than quantity.