Let’s get something straight right out of the gate — this isn’t the 2019 Ravens steamrolling their way to 12-4. This is the 2025 version, limping into Week 8 with a 1-5 record, an overrated betting line, and more question marks than a drunk group chat. Meanwhile, the Bears are rolling with a four-game heater, looking like an actual football team for the first time in half a decade. And Vegas still has Baltimore as 6.5-point favorites? Get the hell outta here.
This isn’t just about momentum — it’s about math, film, and facts. The Bears are out-coaching, out-executing, and out-hustling teams right now. The Ravens? They’re hoping Lamar Jackson’s hamstring holds up long enough to keep their sinking ship from capsizing. So let’s dig into why this line is trash, why Chicago’s the real deal, and why John Harbaugh might want to start updating his LinkedIn.
Lamar Jackson: Electric... But not 100%
Yes, Lamar’s back (at least we think). And yes, when healthy, he’s a human cheat code. But let’s not pretend we’re getting 100% MVP-mode Lamar here. He’s coming off a hamstring injury that already cost him two games. That kind of thing doesn’t magically heal overnight — especially for a guy who depends on his legs more than anyone not named Fields or Kyler.
Even before the injury, Jackson was cooking: 136.6 passer rating, 9.0 YPA, 10 TDs, & 1 INT. But now? He's listed as questionable and practicing in a limited capacity. That means even if he plays, the designed runs are likely neutered, the scrambling magic dialed back, and suddenly you’ve got a pocket passer trying to outduel a rising defense. Let’s be clear — I’m not knocking Lamar Jackson. The guy's a two-time MVP for a reason, and anytime he’s under center, the Ravens have a shot. But let’s not kid ourselves — this season, he hasn’t looked like the Lamar we’re used to. The pass game explosiveness isn’t there, and whether it’s the hammy or the chaos around him, he’s not the same game-wrecker right now.
Baltimore’s Defense: Historically Trash
This isn’t hyperbole. The Ravens are pacing to break the all-time NFL record for most points allowed in a season. 32.3 PPG. 380.8 YPG. Only 7 sacks in six games. A -7 turnover differential. If this were Madden, you'd restart the franchise mode.
They’re missing Nnamdi Madubuike — easily their best defensive lineman — and even with Roquan Smith returning, they’re still bleeding yardage like a horror movie victim. Zach Orr’s unit got torched for a franchise-worst defensive grade against Detroit in Week 3. And that was WITH some starters. Imagine what Ben Johnson’s tricked-out Bears offense is gonna do to them now.
Ben Johnson’s Scheme Is Giving Teams Nightmares
Let’s give the man his flowers. In just six weeks, Johnson turned a joke of an offense into a damn problem. The Bears lead the league in big plays — 48 total, averaging 8.0 per game. They’ve dropped 21+ points in every game this season. Their offensive line stopped playing like a turnstile, Caleb Williams (besides last week) has found some rhythm, and Swift is punishing defenses like it’s 2019.
D'Andre Swift is averaging 183.5 rushing yards over the last two games. That’s not a typo. And he’s doing it behind an O-line that features Joe Thuney playing like an All-Pro bodyguard and rookie Darnell Wright finally mauling people. Baltimore’s run defense? 26th. Without Madubuike? Even worse. Swift might hit 100 yards before halftime.
The Turnover Avalanche Is Real
You want a stat that'll make your head spin? The Bears are +11 in turnover differential. The Ravens? -7. That’s an 18-turnover swing. That’s not just a fluke— that’s game-changing. The Bears defense has forced 15 takeaways during their win streak alone. That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL.
Chicago’s secondary is finally living up to the hype with Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, and some no-name corners who apparently think they’re the '85 Bears reincarnated. They’re aggressive, opportunistic, and hungry. And if Jackson comes back rusty or cautious? Expect at least two turnovers.
The Coaching Mismatch: Johnson > Orr
We’re seeing a young coach with an actual offensive vision going up against a DC who’s trying to duct-tape together a defense with missing parts. Johnson is dialing up creative misdirection, 12-personnel deception, and keeping defenses on their heels. Orr’s best answer so far? Pray.
And Harbaugh? He’s standing by Orr because he has no choice. The heat is on, and this isn’t the Harbaugh of 2012. This team is circling the drain, and the locker room’s already showing cracks. Meanwhile, Johnson’s Bears are playing with swagger and cohesion. One team looks coached. The other looks coached out.
Key Matchups That Tilt This Game
- Swift vs. Ravens Run D: 183.5 YPG over last two games vs. 26th-ranked run D. Lopsided isn’t even the word.
- Caleb Williams vs. Blitz: Chicago’s O-line is protecting better, giving Williams time to hit explosive plays. Baltimore can’t get home with four, and blitzing opens the floodgates.
- Third Down Battle: Bears defense allowing just 29.7% conversions over their win streak. Ravens are the NFL’s worst at getting off the field. More time of possession, more control, more points.
Advanced Analytics Summary
| Metric | Ravens | Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play (Offense) | -0.03 (23rd) | 0.02 (15th) | CHI |
| EPA/Play (Defense) | Worst in NFL | Improving | CHI |
| Success Rate (Offense) | 42.77% | 43.05% | CHI |
| Explosive Play Rate | 8.0 big plays/game | 8.0 big plays/game | EVEN |
| Turnover Differential | -7 | +11 | CHI |
| Red Zone TD% (Offense) | 44.4% (30th) | 50.0% (21st) | CHI |
| Third Down Defense | 44.05% allowed | 40.3% allowed | CHI |
| Sacks Generated | 7 (32nd) | Improving | CHI |
| Rush Defense Rank | 26th (134.3 YPG) | 28th (137.7 YPG) | EVEN |
Final Verdict
Lamar will make plays. Henry will break a few runs. But the Ravens just don’t have enough. The Bears are too balanced, too hot, and too disruptive defensively to let this one slip.
If the Ravens somehow pull this out, it’ll be on the back of a Superman performance from Lamar and a fluky Bears meltdown. But based on everything we’ve seen, Chicago is the smarter, sharper, and more dangerous team right now.
Prediction: Bears 28, Ravens 24
