I always like the Chicago Bears. But also...
(1) Offensive rebound. The Bengals field the worst defense - yards and points per game - in the league. They just allowed 39 points to a Jets offense without their top playmaker and forced to return to Justin Fields at QB by injury. If the Bears offense does not score 27+ this week, there is little reason to expect they'll show the signs of progression we're hoping to see over the final ten games of the campaign. (Also, it doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the Bengals. Their receivers WILL be open and will be productive.)
(2) The Bengals can't run the ball. At all. It didn't get the headlines but the Ravens ability to stay ahead of the chains with the run game was a huge part of their success last week. Both Derrick Henry and Snoop Huntley keep that offense moving. That won't be the case this week. The Bears should be able to keep the Bengals in second/third-and-long, and then it will incumbent upon Dennis Allen to create pressure to protect his undermanned secondary. I think this is a week where the Bears embrace needing a boatload of offensive points to win the game and so they take some chances on the defensive side.
(3) JARRING STAT ALERT! The Bears have been one of the better defenses on third down, allowing only a 31.9% conversion rate. The Bengals have been one of the worst defenses on third down, allowing a conversion rate of 48.5%. If these performances hold, the Bears win the game. But as we saw last week with turnovers, trend lines don't always hold.
Prediction: Ugly shootout. Chicago Bears 30, Cincinnati Bengals 29
