I always like the Chicago Bears. And even against a desperate Fighting McNulties this week, there are things to like about this matchup. Here are three.
[NOTE: As the time of publishing this on Thursday morning, there is still a belief that Lamar Jackson may not play Sunday. The betting line opened at Baltimore -6.5. It has not moved. So I'm operating as if Lamar WILL play.]
(1) Baltimore is allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 134.3 yards per game through six weeks. The Bears have become bully rush team since the bye week. With Lamar returning, and seemingly healthy, Ben Johnson will need to protect his injury-riddled secondary. The best way to do so is to keep Jackson off the field, moving the chains on the ground.
(2) Sometimes you scavenge the stat pages and look for eye poppers. And you won't find a more eye-popping disparity than turnover differential this week. Both teams have played six games. The Bears are +11. The Ravens are -7. (For context, the only wider gap than 18 possible this week would have been the Bears v. Jets at 20.) There are two logics when it comes to turnovers. One, that turnovers are as much chance as skill, and will revert back to a mean. But two, sometimes teams just have nightmare seasons in the turnover department, and the reversion doesn't begin until the following September. Unless you believe this Sunday will be a trend breaker for both teams, this is a massive advantage for the Bears.
(3) Belief in Ben Johnson, re: Caleb Williams. Johnson has somewhat miraculously fixed the running game since the bye, but the quarterback is still a work-in-progress. If you believe in this coach (I do) and you believe in this quarterback (I also do), you must believe the message will get through at some point. Caleb left a lot of yardage on the field against the New Orleans. He left first downs on the field. He left points on the field. The coach will be in his head about that decision making all week. The Bears are winning, so the noise around Caleb's performance last Sunday has not been deafening. If they start losing because of his decision making, the volume will increase.
Prediction: UPSET ALERT! Chicago Bears 27, Baltimore Ravens 23
