Let’s not bullshit here. If you’re watching ESPN this week, you’re hearing the same tired narrative on loop: "The San Francisco 49ers are a juggernaut," "Brock Purdy is efficient," and "The Bears are a cute story, but they aren't ready for the big boy table."
The 49ers are sitting at 11-4. The Bears are scratching and clawing for positioning. On paper, to the casual observer, this looks like a scheduled loss. A "learning experience" for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson.
But I’m not here to give you the casual observer’s take. I’m here to tell you why the sharps — and the tape — see something different.
To deliver a prediction of this specificity, we have to look past the surface-level narratives and identify the structural mismatches that favor Chicago in a high-scoring shootout. While the national media focuses on San Francisco's offense, the advanced metrics in the trenches and situational efficiency reveal a distinct path to victory for the Bears.
Here is the deep-dive preview for the Week 17 clash, outlining exactly how Chicago can pull off the upset.
The "Blitz-Beater" Game Script
The consensus views San Francisco (11-4) as a machine, but their defense has a fatal flaw in 2025: an inability to generate organic pressure.
Let’s look at the numbers, because they are staggering. The 49ers rank near the bottom of the league with just 1.2 sacks per game (18 total sacks on the season). That is defensive malpractice for a team with this much payroll.
Why does this matter? Because it forces Defensive Coordinator Robert Saleh to manufacture chaos. He has to blitz. If he sits back in coverage, Caleb Williams will pick them apart with time to throw. But if he sends the house? Well, that plays directly into Caleb Williams' greatest strength in his sophomore season.
The "Hidden" Mismatch: Caleb Williams vs. The 49ers' Blitz
The defining metric for this matchup is Caleb Williams' efficiency against the blitz. Because San Francisco's front four has struggled to get home without help, they will be forced to send extra rushers.
This is where the game flips. Last year, rookie Caleb might have panicked. Sophomore Caleb? He’s an assassin when you speed him up.
Caleb Williams vs. The Blitz (2025 Season) (Data per BearsWire/USAToday)
| Metric | Stat | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| TD-to-INT Ratio | 6:0 | 1st (NFL) |
| Passer Rating | 136.3 | 1st (NFL) |
| Sack Rate vs. Blitz | 3.1% | Top 5 |
Do you see that? Zero interceptions against the blitz. When teams try to heat him up, he doesn't just survive; he thrives. He punishes them. This is the structural mismatch that the "49ers are a juggernaut" crowd is missing.
The Tactical Edge: No Odunze? No Problem.
When San Francisco blitzes, they leave their secondary in man coverage.
Now, the bad news: Rome Odunze is OUT with that foot injury. I know, I know. It sucks. But weirdly enough, this actually simplifies the read for Williams. He doesn't have to look for the deep, developing route. He just has to find the leverage.
The 49ers' cornerbacks rank 23rd in pass defense efficiency. That is… not elite. They are susceptible to separation on the back end. Without Odunze, look for Williams to exploit this with quick-hitting slants to DJ Moore and seam routes to Colston Loveland.
It’s going to be pitch-and-catch. Saleh sends 5 or 6, Caleb identifies the man coverage, and the ball is out before the rush gets there.
Offensive X-Factor: The Return of Luther Burden III
Speaking of mismatches, let’s talk about the rookie sensation. With Odunze sidelined, Luther Burden III returns at the perfect moment.
If you read my breakdown of Poles' draft class, you know I love this kid. His skillset — elite YAC (Yards After Catch) and contact balance — is the absolute antidote to the 49ers' zone-heavy scheme (when they aren't blitzing).
The Mismatch: The 49ers linebackers are aggressive flowing downhill and Ben Johnson knows this. Expect him to use Burden on misdirection, jet sweeps, and tunnel screens to use that aggression against them.
The Prediction: Burden mirrors his Week 4 breakout (101 yards vs. Dallas). Expect a stat line of 7 catches, 95 yards, and 1 TD, acting as the engine that keeps the Bears ahead of the chains. He is going to make a couple of linebackers look silly in space.
Defensive Path to Victory: The "Thievery" Protocol
How do you give up yards to Brock Purdy but still win? You steal the damn ball.
The Bears' defense leads the NFL with 31 takeaways this season. It’s been the story of the year. Some call it luck; I call it a habit. Conversely, the 49ers' defense has forced only a handful of turnovers. That is a massive possession disparity waiting to happen.
The "Bend Don't Break" Formula is in full effect here:
- Red Zone Lockdown: The Bears rank 9th in Opponent Red Zone TD % (52%). They will allow Purdy to drive between the 20s. Fine. Let him have the yards. But once the field shrinks, the Bears' tight windows force 49ers Field Goals.
- Pressure from the Interior: While Montez Sweat gets the headlines, DT Gervon Dexter ranks 16th in pass-rush win rate. He will collapse the pocket into Purdy's face. Purdy hates interior pressure. That’s where the hurried throws come from, and that’s where the interceptions happen.
The Turnover Margin: I predicts the Bears win the turnover battle at +2. This gives Caleb Williams two extra possessions — critical in a game where both teams are scoring into the high 20s.
Final Verdict
This game will be remembered as Caleb Williams' signature "National Stage" performance. The narrative flips on Monday morning. The "cute story" becomes a legitimate threat.
Chicago Bears 34, San Francisco 49ers 27
Bear Down.
