Let’s just rip the Band-Aid off: As of Week 6, the Chicago Bears have an 18.2% chance of making the playoffs. That’s not a typo. That’s Vegas telling you your hopeful tweets about Caleb Williams are probably delusional. And while hope is fun, math doesn’t give a damn about your feelings.
But this isn’t just about odds. This is about context. The Bears are better. Ben Johnson has brought in a real offensive system (imagine that), the O-line isn't a dumpster fire, and Caleb Williams is no longer being coached like a high school backup. There’s legitimate progress. But that playoff pipe dream? Still hanging on by dental floss.
Let’s break down the reasons this team might sneak into the dance — and the cold, ugly truth about why they probably won’t.
REASONS TO BELIEVE (OR AT LEAST BINGE DRINK WITH HOPE)
1. Ben Johnson is Already Changing the Offense (and Your Life)
It’s wild what happens when you hire a coach who actually understands modern offense. Ben Johnson didn’t just bring over plays from Detroit — he brought over swagger. The Bears are scoring 25.3 points per game (11th in the NFL), and they’re cooking in the red zone with an 63.6% touchdown rate. That’s 14th best in the league. Just last year, they couldn’t punch it in from the one-yard line if the defense was on lunch break.
Johnson’s third-down conversion rate is 45.5% (6th in the NFL), which tells you the offense isn’t just explosive — it’s sustainable. They're staying on the field, chewing clock, and not relying on fluke plays. For a franchise that’s been allergic to offensive competence, this is huge.
2. The Offensive Line Actually Blocks Now
You remember the 68 sacks from last year? That’s not a typo either. That was NFL-high, and it looked worse in real time. Enter Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson— three legit dudes who instantly turned this group from a liability into an asset.
Dalman’s 95.1% pass block win rate ranks 9th among centers. Thuney is a walking Super Bowl ring with elite technique. And Jackson already knows Johnson’s system from Detroit. Add all that up and you get a pocket that doesn’t collapse like a cheap lawn chair. Which means Caleb Williams might actually get to finish a read before being folded in half.
Oh, and here's a stat that'll blow your damn mind: the Bears have only given up 7 sacks through six weeks. That’s 8th best in the league. From dead-last in 2024 to top-10 in 2025? That’s not improvement — that’s a damn miracle. It’s what happens when you stop trotting out traffic cones to protect your franchise QB.
3. Schedule Sets Up for a Late Push
They started the season with a meat grinder of games. But guess what? Eight of their nine toughest matchups are front-loaded. That matters when you’ve got a new coach, a young QB, and a roster learning how to win.
They went 1-5 in one-score games last year. Regression says that should bounce. They underperformed their expected win total. Regression says that should bounce, too. And if they can stay afloat early, they’ve got a puncher’s chance to heat up when the playoff picture starts taking shape.
And here’s the wildcard that could tip the scales — injuries. The NFL is an attrition game, and this season has already turned into a mash unit across the league. Star QBs, top defenders, offensive linemen — you name it, they’re dropping. That means a bunch of games that looked like automatic Ls on paper back in August? Suddenly a hell of a lot more winnable.
If the Bears can stay relatively healthy — and that’s a big if — they could feast on backup quarterbacks, patchwork lines, and shaken defenses in the next 7–8 weeks. It’s the kind of midseason run that could actually solidify their case for a playoff push instead of just dreaming about one.
WHY THEY’RE PROBABLY STILL SCREWED
1. The NFC North is a Knife Fight
Look, I love the internal improvements. But this division is a war zone. The Lions, Vikings, and Packers all made the playoffs last year — and not as pity picks. We’re talking 15-2, 14-3, and 11-6 records, respectively. That’s not a division. That’s a damn slaughterhouse. And it hasn’t let up. The Lions still look like the favorite to win the entire NFC, and as of Week 6, every team in this division is above .500. So yeah — we knew the NFC North was tough. But it’s proving to be a straight-up buzzsaw again.
And look, the Bears aren’t just trying to rise — they’re trying to leapfrog teams that are already playoff-proven. Add in road trips to places like Philly, Baltimore, and San Francisco, and you’ve got a schedule cooked up in Satan’s Instant Pot.
2. Caleb Williams Still Looks Like a Rookie Sometimes
Yes, he has "wow" throws. Yes, the potential is real. But the inconsistency is too. A 62.5% completion rate (31st in the NFL) and 6.3 yards per attempt (33rd) is not how you make the playoffs. It's how you throw drive-killing incompletions on 2nd and 6.
Now I’m not a Caleb hater — tbh, I’ve enjoyed the improvements I’ve seen this year. I love what I’m seeing from the kid. But we have to be fair: he isn’t quite there yet to give me full confidence that he can lead us to the playoffs. That opinion can change fast, though. He strings together a nice lil’ run of games and who knows? But right now, gotta call a spade a spade.
3. This Defense Ain’t What It Used to Be
Dennis Allen was brought in to clean up a defense that quietly regressed last year—and that’s being generous. They have forced 9 turnovers (4th in the NFL), but the pass rush is still MIA unless they blitz or pray.
They’re not generating pressure consistently, they’ve lost veteran pieces, and the back end has been more "meh" than menacing. And their run defense is abysmal. They gave up 180 yards to Geanty alone last weekend and are surrendering an average of 6.2 yards per carry — dead last in the NFL. You can't make the playoffs when teams can consistently do whatever the hell they want on the ground.
Until this defense proves it can make big plays and close games, they’re going to be in weekly shootouts— and that’s not where you want a young QB carrying the load.
The Final Verdict
The Bears are heading in the right direction. Ben Johnson is legit. The offensive line is fixed. Caleb Williams might become That Dude. But this year? Probably not the year.
They’ve got an 18.2% shot at the playoffs and a 3.45% chance to win the division. Vegas isn’t trying to be mean — they’re just watching the same film you are. Too many variables. Too much schedule. Too many unproven pieces.
They’re building something. But it’s still in drywall phase, not move-in ready. So keep cheering, keep drinking, and keep dreaming.
Just don’t bet your rent on January football in Chicago.
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