Why the Mitch Trubisky 2018 Injury Possibly Made Matt Nagy Gun Shy

Mitch Trubisky carries the hopes of the Chicago Bears franchise on his shoulders. He knows this and is doing everything in his power to get better. He wants to be that guy who gets this team to a championship. Unfortunately, his level of play has taken a significant downturn of late. His touchdown production has dried up (2 TD passes in the past four games). Outside of a spectacular 4th quarter against Philadelphia in the playoffs, he's looked largely average.

This may not be entirely his fault either. Something happened to the Bears offense at some point in 2018. Something that changed the way they approached games. It was subtle and easy to miss at the time. However, visual evidence continues to pour in, and much of it points to head coach Matt Nagy. One thing to remember about the man is he is protective of his players. Some may argue overly so. He holds them out for an extended period of weeks when dealing with injuries so as to ensure they're 100% upon return.

What nobody bothered to ask is whether he might overcompensate when they return so as to ensure it doesn't happen again. Back in late November of 2018, Trubisky suffered a shoulder injury due to a late hit from Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith. That play knocked the Bears QB out for the following two games. People expected things to go back to normal when he returned in early December. The Bears kept winning, but that made it easy to miss that something had changed.

Nagy changed.

Mitch Trubisky hasn't been as aggressive as he was pre-injury

I did some research on this subject to see if it was all just a mirage. What I found was fascinating. Two particular stats stuck out before and after Trubisky's shoulder injury that suggests Nagy lost a little bit of his aggressive mindset after his quarterback went down. It starts with the downfield throws. Prior to the injury, 118 of Trubisky's 321 passes traveled at least 10 yards. That averaged out to 37.14%.

This has tapered off. In the six games he has played since returning from the shoulder issue, the quarterback has thrown 69 of 201 passes that far or farther. This equates to just 33.61%. A significant dip on the aggressiveness meter.

Then there is the running aspect.

One of Trubisky's biggest strengths as a football player is his mobility. Teams fear his knack for getting loose and picking up yards with his legs. It was a huge part of his game before the injury. In 10 games prior to the injury last year, he ran the ball himself 51 times. That's an average of 5.667 per game. When he returned, he still moves but not nearly as often. In six games since returning, he's carried it himself 23 times. An average of just 4.6 per game.

It's even worse if you factor in the late hit he took against San Francisco in Week 16. Since then, the average has been a meager three times per game. Nagy even admitted that the team has tried to curb Trubisky's enthusiasm to run so often. They made it seem like because they want him to execute better from the pocket. Some of it though might be motivated by a desire to keep him from getting hurt again.

This would explain Nagy's unusual play calling as well. Over the past two games, he has become a little too in love with throwing the ball short and to the sidelines. Between the Eagles and Packers game, the Bears have thrown the ball horizontally 10 yards and in 21 times. By contrast, in Trubisky's two best performances as a Bear against Tampa Bay and Detroit last year?

He did so a combined 13 times.

This practice allows defenses to climb up on the line of scrimmage, limiting yards after the catch and clouding Trubisky's field vision. It's no coincidence that things only got better after Nagy finally allowed the offense to take more shots down the field in each game.

The Bears head coach always likes to use the mantra "Be You" when talking to his players. It's a good mindset to have. It just seems like Nagy isn't holding himself to that same accountability. At least not like he used to. There is always a risk of Trubisky getting hurt again. Especially with his style of play. However, it's also how he's proven to be most effective. Trying to turn him into something he's not isn't working.

If Nagy wants to get this thing back on track, he must take the shackles off his QB.