Why This Top Draft QB Could Fall Into Bears Lap in Second Round

Part of what makes a successful NFL draft is the on-the-clock is the feeling out process. What does that mean? Often the best teams this time of year are the ones who have a good sense of which players where and when players will likely come off the board. If this guy will still be there when we're on the board again, then we should probably take somebody else with a similar grade. Looking for an example? Recall how the Chicago Bears operated in the draft last year. They could've easily taken offensive tackle Cody Whitehair at the #41 pick and been content with it. However, GM Ryan Pace seemed to have a feel that the young lineman would probably still be on the board later. So the Bears moved down not once but twice in the second round. During which they scooped up three fourth round picks. Then they grabbed Whitehair at #56. It was masterful manipulation of the board. Pace is going to need that same good sense again going into 2017, especially with the pressure to draft a quarterback high. Will it be in the first round? Current sense is the value might not be there. On the other hand there is a fear there won't be any good option left by the time Chicago goes on the clock again. Here's why that might not be accurate.

ARM DOESN'T OVERCOME RAWNESS

There is no doubt the most tantalizing part of Mahomes' arsenal is his right arm. It's an absolute cannon. When he throws it looks calm and almost effortless. Yet the ball is rocketing to the directed spot in a hurry. He can make any throw in the playbook at the NFL level. Something coaches loves having at their disposal. That being said, draft history shows that simply having a gun doesn't make up for lack of development elsewhere. [video width="1280" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Texas-Techs-Jonathan-Giles-hauls-in-44-yard-TD-pass-2016-College-Football-Highlights-1.mp4"][/video] A couple of examples that people should remember? Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders and Pro Football Hall of Famer Brett Favre. The general belief surrounding Carr was he had athleticism as could rip that football loose but he was coming from a smaller school (Fresno State) and played in a simple, spread offense with few pro tendencies. Thus he went in the second round. Favre played in a pure vertical throwing offense at Southern Mississippi. There were no pro element at all. He lasted until the second as well. [video width="1276" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Radiers-Draft-Derek-Carr.mp4"][/video] Mahomes is in the exact same situation as those two. Great charisma and intangibles, outstanding individual talent but far from being ready for the NFL level. He made his living in a spread offense at Texas Tech and the fact he plays with so little polish or discipline will give most teams pause about using a first round pick on him.

EVERY OTHER TEAM COULD HAVE AN EXCUSE

The big key of course is what the other 31 teams in the league think of Mahomes. Naturally they'll like his raw talent but it's always accompanied by the simple question. Enough to warrant a first round pick? Looking over the most quarterback-needy teams picking ahead of the Bears from #1 to #35, a legitimate argument can be made for each of them that it's unlikely they go with Mahomes at that spot.

Cleveland (#1,#12,#33) - Likely to use #12 pick on their QB

The Browns could have three cracks at Mahomes before the Bears get a second one but all signs point to their 12th pick being the spot where they get their guy. They are certain to draft pass rusher Myles Garrett at #1. The odds of them taking Mahomes ahead of Mitch Trubisky or Deshaun Watson is unlikely.

San Francisco (#2,#34) - Favorites to trade for Kirk Cousins

San Francisco has no quarterbacks on their roster but they won't have a need to draft one high if and when they land Cousins via trade from Washington.

New Orleans (#11) - They are virtually guaranteed to draft defense

Drew Brees is getting old but the Saints badly need help on defense. Almost from the very start they've bluntly said they plan to grab defensive help early and often.

Arizona (#13) - More likely to choose Deshone Kizer if they go QB

The Cardinals are very much in the quarterback mix, so why Kizer over Mahomes? He already has experience with pro-style tendencies coming out of Notre Dame. That will appeal to an old school coach like Bruce Arians. [video width="1280" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Testing-DeShone-Kizers-Football-IQ-with-Steve-Mariucci-Moochs-Whiteboard-NFL-Network.mp4"][/video]

Washington (#18) - Believe in Colt McCoy and must replace roster losses

Washington may consider Mahomes at #17 but that's not likely. Word is they trust Cousins' backup Colt McCoy to step up and have plenty of other issues on their roster to fix after free agency gutted some key areas.

Houston (#25) - Has never taken a first round QB under Rick Smith

People keep projecting Mahomes to the Texans at #25. Not only does this not fit given they need a QB who is ready to play now, but it's also important to remember that GM Rick Smith doesn't draft that position in the first round. He never has dating all the way back to 2006.

Kansas City (#27) - GM has gone on record stating he's not a fan of class

Kansas City is the team the Bears would have to worry about most. Mahomes represents the kind of talent upgrade over Alex Smith the Chiefs are seeking and Andy Reid is a widely-respected quarterback guru. That said, they still have a proven veteran in Smith who isn't too old and there is also the fact that GM John Dorsey complained about how unprepared this class was for the next level. At the end of the day one must weigh realities. Is Patrick Mahomes a talented young man? No question. Can he be a great quarterback in the NFL? Absolutely. Would he help a team right away? Ah. Now there's the rub. None of the top 10 teams are taking him and the remaining teams who are borderline playoff contenders are unlikely to view him as a quick fix type of rookie quarterback.

Such types don't generally go in the first round. There have been exceptions to be sure, but not many. Mahomes could go earlier, but the odds are increasing that he slips to the top of Day 2, right into the Bears' warm embrace.