Why Year 2 Under Matt Eberflus Should See A Big Jump In Wins

The Chicago Bears had two missions during the first year under GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus. One was to unload every expensive contract they could. The other was to begin instilling their new culture. Eberflus made it clear from the start that players would be held to a high standard moving forward. He would judge them through his H.I.T.S principle. If he felt they didn't hustle, play with intensity, be mindful of turnovers, or play smart, then they wouldn't be around long. In simpler terms, he wanted guys willing to work and play hard.

Plenty of guys on the roster didn't seem to measure up to those standards. So the Bears either traded them, cut them or let them leave in free agency. One thing Eberflus knew was it often takes time for players to embrace such a demanding style from a coach. It also takes time to find other players willing to do the same. As a result, the Bears struggled in 2022 with a 3-14. Some are left wondering if Eberflus can turn things around this year. In this case, history is on his side. There is a steady track record of coaches who use a similar coaching formula to H.I.T.S having big results in their second seasons.

Tony Dungy

• Tampa Bay year one: 6-10
• Tampa Bay year two: 10-6

Lovie Smith

• Chicago year one: 5-11
• Chicago year two: 11-5
• Tampa Bay year one: 2-14
• Tampa Bay year two: 6-10

Rod Marinelli

• Detroit year one: 3-13
• Detroit year two: 7-9

Matt Eberflus is in a good spot to follow that trend.

One thing that became clear in all of those situations was the players were better disciplined and in better condition by the second year. They played at much higher speeds and were always physical. The Bears have already seen this formula work once before. It stands to reason it can again. The difference this time is Eberflus hasn't inherited any surefire Hall of Famers as Smith did. He doesn't have Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs already in place. However, he does have a far better quarterback situation.

Anybody would take Justin Fields over Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton in a heartbeat. That is Matt Eberflus' path forward. While his defense might not be ready for primetime yet, his offense is shaping up to be miles better than what Dungy, Smith, or Marinelli had during their runs. The bottom line is the Bears have had time to establish the culture and begun adding pieces that fit it. When this happens, improvement almost always follows. It isn't unreasonable to expect at least a four-game improvement.