The Chicago Bears have a quarterback problem. Stop if you've heard that before. All the chatter around this team for the next two months will be what they plan to do about Mitch Trubisky. He's the only QB they have under contract and he had a massively disappointing year in 2019. Expectations are the Bears will make a move of some kind to bring in more depth and possibly competition as well.
Some are wondering if they might decide to double down on the problem in the NFL draft. Why not? It's the most important position in the sport. While that sounds nice and all, in theory, the reality is the Bears are better off saving those picks for other needs on the roster. There is plenty of evidence to support the reality that this team should not draft a quarterback at all. Let alone with one of their early picks.
Chicago Bears are historically bad outside the 1st round
The QB history for this franchise is mostly bad in general. However, they do at least have some bright spots in the 1st round. Sid Luckman is in the Hall of Fame. Jim McMahon won a Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh went to the playoffs a few times. Even Trubisky made a Pro Bowl. However, everything changes when they dip into the later rounds.
Since 1936, the Bears have drafted 35 quarterbacks total in the 2nd round or later. Just 10 them actually started at least one season for them. Even better? Only one of them actually finished their time in Chicago with more touchdown passes than interceptions. That was Kyle Orton from 2005 to 2008. Not exactly a legacy that gives one confidence they can alter that trend anytime soon.
The 2020 class is not exactly deep
This draft class is not the worst seen in modern history. That honor probably goes to 2013. Still, there are definite concerns once teams get outside the top four names. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are viewed as future starters. After them, it gets a lot murkier. Jordan Love and Jacob Eason have lots of talent but serious question marks about their decision making. Jake Fromm and Jalen Hurts have great character traits but are viewed as backup-caliber passers.
After that, it's a crapshoot. There aren't many guys with the kind of upside that makes one think they'll be starting in one or two years. Let alone this season. Rookie quarterbacks rarely excel right away and none to date have won a Super Bowl. So the reasons for the Bears taking one at all would be purely for depth. That's not a bad reason, but given their host of other needs on offense alone? Justifying such a pick feels pointless.
Ryan Pace
Last but certainly not least, we come to the crux of the issue. Pace is still the GM. Every decision this man has made regarding quarterback since he took over in 2015 has been largely the wrong one. He passed on Case Keenum and Nick Foles while ignoring a chance to draft Dak Prescott in 2016. He bypassed Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson for Trubisky in 2017. Don't forget he handed an overpriced contract to Mike Glennon that same year.
Nothing about this man's decisions over the past five offseasons offers any hope he can suddenly get the quarterback position right. Especially without a 1st round pick to improve his chances. Wanting him to take a shot anyway feels more than a little reckless.
There is nothing wrong with thinking about the future at the most important position in sports. That said, the odds are against the Bears getting anybody who will ultimately matter.
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