Opening Day is just a few days away, so let's take the time to make some money on the 2018
Chicago Cubs.
If you followed my picks from the 2017 season you were in luck, as I went
8-2-2 overall and 4-1 on my locks. So if you want, I guess the smart play would be to fade my picks for the 2018 season. Hmm. Or just ride the hot hand because are you really going to be rooting against the Cubs? That's no fun. Well, if you're a Cubs fan anyway.
So, the 2017 season was a little weird, but ultimately the Cubs proved they were still the class of the National League central division. The offense was on fire in the second half, but overall the pitching was way too inconsistent and injuries to the starting rotation obviously added to the struggles.
Yet, for the 2018 season, I'm getting similar vibes to the 2016 season. It begins with the starting rotation that has the potential to be just as good as that awesome starting five was two years ago. I mean, Yu Darvish added to a rotation that already includes Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks? Hell yeah you should be excited. And let's not forget about Jon Lester, who looks fresh and don't sleep on Tyler Chatwood either as the fifth starter.
The offense? Well, we'll get to that going through some of these over/unders.
All right, here we go. The five bets you have to make on the 2018 Chicago Cubs. You can find
all of these prop bets and more over at Bovada.
Anthony Rizzo o/u 99.5 RBIs
He deserves a "C" on his chest for being the captain of the Cubs, but that could also stand for Mr. Consistency. That's what Anthony Rizzo has been with the Chicago Cubs, so you better smash that over on 99.5 RBIs for the 2018 season.
Since 2015, Rizzo has put up 101, 109 and 109 RBIs, while having a 1.011 OPS with runners in scoring position during the past three seasons. Plain and simple, if there's one guy on the Cubs you can count on to drive in runs it's Anthony Rizzo. Easy over on 99.5 RBIs. (-120)
Kris Bryant o/u 109.5 Runs Scored
Kris Bryant only had an "OK" 2017 season in the eyes of some people and despite only being OK for that group of fans, Bryant still finished the year scoring the fifth most runs in the National League at 111. He's an on-base machine, reaching base at a .388 clip during his first three seasons and that trend isn't going to go down. Bryant is a great base runner and with his walk rate increasing year after year, and the Cubs have plenty of hitters to drive him in, it's another easy decision to bet the over 109.5 runs scored for KB. (-115)
Kyle Schwarber o/u 29.5 Home Runs
Over 29.5 home runs. (-125) Hell, if he keeps wearing the high socks, Schwarber will get to 30 home runs by the All-Star break.
If Theo Epstein believes in Kyle Schwarber, then I believe in Kyle Schwarber.
Willson Contreras o/u 24.5 Home Runs
In 128 at-bats after the All-Star break in 2017, Willson Contreras had a slash line of .305/.407/.586, hitting 10 home runs. He ended the season with 21 home runs and that included missing one month in the second half of the year because of a hamstring injury. Contreras is yet another player on the Cubs who is on the cusp of superstardom. Give me that over 24.5 home runs for Willy in 2018. (-115)
Javier Baez o/u .275 Batting Average
Guys, I'm not a complete homer here. Javier Baez was elevated to a bigger role last year, starting 30 more games than in 2016. He hit .273, in 505 plate appearances. However, even though his power will remain in 2018, Baez is expected to get even more playing time as the regular second baseman and get his 600 trips to the plate. He simply swings and misses too much for me to think he'll hit over .275 in 2018.
So, take the under. (-115)
All right, so those were my five locks for the 2018 season, but there are still more prop bets to talk about.
Pitching o/u
Brandon Morrow
29.5 saves
That kind of seems low, but you have to consider several factors and health is at the top of the list. Brandon Morrow has been plagued with injuries during his entire career and the Cubs are making sure they don't push him in his first season on the North Side. However, I'm going to be on the optimistic side and say over 29.5 saves for Morrow this year. (-115) Cross those fingers for a healthy season.
Yu Darvish
3.40 ERA
13.5 wins
200.5 strikeouts
Yu Darvish had 209 strikeouts in 2017, his third year with more than 200 strikeouts in MLB. We've seen how nasty he is and this will be his second full season since Tommy John surgery and we should really expect more than 200 strikeouts, so smash that over. (-115)
No real strong feeling on the win total or ERA.
Jon Lester
180.5 strikeouts
13 wins
I was a little nervous before spring training started about Jon Lester. Too many times he looked down right awful in 2017, and the thought that maybe that bad version of Lester was going to be more of the norm going forward creeped into my head. Then pitchers and catchers reported to Mesa and Lester looked like he was back. Joe Maddon noticed how crisp Lester was from the start of Cubs camp, so give me that over 180.5 strikeouts. (-115) I mean, he still had 180 strikeouts last season, when he was brutal at times and didn't get through six innings in one-third of his starts.
Fully believe Lester will be back to his old self in 2018.
But wait, there's more! Let's take a look at some odds for player awards and the Cubs odds in the playoffs.
Odds To Win 2018 NL MVP
Kris Bryant +450
Anthony Rizzo +1800
Willson Contreras +5000
Kyle Schwarber +7000
Willson Contreras at +5000 is tasty.
2018 MLB Home Run Leader
Kris Bryant +3000
Kyle Schwarber +4000
Anthony Rizzo +5000
I mean, skinny Schwarber with the high socks is the favorite.
The Cubs are favorites to win the NL Central (-275) and are +350 to win the National League Pennant. The Cubs are also at +750 to win the World Series on Bovada.
Check out odds for all
30 MLB teams here.
Well, good luck to those of you who put some money down on these bets and make sure to follow along on Twitter
@AldoSoto21 for more Cubs fun, lots of highlights and maybe even a laugh or two.
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