A Paul Skenes Trade to the Cubs Would Cost A Lot More Thank You Think

Never say never? That's according to The Athletic's Jim Bowden, who recently wrote that GMs across the league will not stop calling the Pittsburgh Pirates despite the team making it clear that they are not interested in trading away Paul Skenes. "I learned long ago in baseball … never say never," Bowden said, so let's take a look at what a Cubs trade could look like for one of the best pitchers in MLB.

Back in May, the Skenes trade buzz was popping after ESPN's Jeff Passan said there was a valid argument to be made that the Pirates should trade Skenes now, when he's at his all-time highest value. Of course, that conversation stemmed from the acknowledgement that the Pirates have the cheapest owners in the sport.

Here are a few trade proposals from two major outlets.

Bleacher Report.

Cubs get: Paul Skenes
Pirates get: Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie

The Athletic.

Cubs get: Paul Skenes
Pirates get: Matt Shaw, Cade Horton, Kevin Alcántara, Juan Tomas

The only trade in recent MLB history that could be comparable to a potential Skenes deal this summer would be when the Nationals traded Juan Soto to the Padres in 2022. The Nationals received six players, including five prospects, while the Padres also got Josh Bell.

Those five prospects were McKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana. At the time of the trade Abrams had played in 46 games and Gore appeared in 16 games, including 13 starts with the Padres. Still, you're talking about four prospects in Gore, Abrams, Hassell and Wood who were all top-100 guys and top-five prospects in San Diego's farm system from 2021-22.

Soto came with only 2.5 years of control and he was already earning big money in the latter stages of his arbitration years. The superstar outfielder earned $23 million in 2023 and then $31 million in 2024.

If Skenes was traded this season whatever team gets him would have him under team control for 4.5 years! In 2026, Skenes would still be in pre-arbitration.

Even the Soto trade isn't a good comp to any hypothetical Skenes deal for this year and probably next year too. You're talking about the best or second-best starter in baseball, he's only 23-years-old AND he's still going to be cheap for another season before he begins to get a substantial raise in arbitration, even then he'd remain a huge bargain.

So yeah, for the Cubs it would at least take Horton, Shaw, Caissie and Alcántara, probably add in another top prospect like ascending shortstop Jefferson Rojas, Ben Brown, Jaxon Wiggins and a couple lottery tickets in A-Ball to get talks moving between the two divisional foes. Again, that's the price if you're trying to trade for Skenes in 2025.

And I guess that's where we can snap back to reality. I have no doubts that one day Skenes will be traded before he hits free agency, but there's just no way that happens this year or even in the next couple years. Even when that time comes it'll be pretty hard to see the Pirates trade away a superstar pitcher to a team in their own division.

But hey, never say never?